ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

EARN // Ellington Credit Company of

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001560672 ↗
Financials • Real Estate Investment Trusts
$3.64 ▼ -0.08 (-2.15%)
MKT CAP: $136.7M • VOL: 521.6K
EARN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 58/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
58 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +190.9% vs NI +44.5% • ROIC-WACC -5.6% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +6.7% • P/E 19.3x • F-SCORE 5/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

Why did EARN's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever EARN is Upgraded or Downgraded.

EARN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.88%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $3.57H $3.64L $3.46C $3.64VOL 455.5K
RES: $4.16SUP: $3.06SMA50: $3.98SMA200: $4.53
$5.40$4.81$4.22$3.63$3.04RES $4.16SUP $3.06$3.642026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
EARN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 45/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 3.4% return on invested capital within Financials (Real Estate Investment Trusts), balanced against a 20.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 3.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 3.4% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of — paired with 6.66% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: — // FCF YLD: 6.66%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 20.8x trailing P/E (19.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 20.8x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $3.64 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Real Estate Investment Trusts require continuous execution to defend — net margins.

NET MARGIN: — // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 19.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 20.8x
FORWARD P/E 19.3x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 6.66%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN —
ROIC % 3.4%
REV GROWTH YOY —
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.18
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 38.4
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // EARNPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $3.33
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for EARN & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>