ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CSTM // Constellium SE (France)

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001563411 ↗
Industrials • Metal Fabrications
$23.11 ▼ -0.91 (-3.79%)
MKT CAP: $3.23B • VOL: 1.73M
CSTM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // B- (RQD 70) -> D+ (RQD 56)
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
56 / 100 -14D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +200% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +20.1% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
6 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 42% • VS 200D -14% • RSI 43.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +4.9% • P/E 9.9x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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CSTM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -25.06%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $24.43H $24.43L $23.11C $23.11VOL 2.03M
RES: $25.21SUP: $22.26SMA50: $25.50SMA200: $27.94
$38.20$33.20$28.20$23.20$18.20RES $25.21SUP $22.26$23.112026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
CSTM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 66/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Constellium SE (France) (CSTM) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 28.7% return on invested capital within Industrials (Metal Fabrications), balanced against a 11.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 28.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 28.7% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +15.2% paired with 4.92% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +15.2% // FCF YLD: 4.92%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 11.8x trailing P/E (9.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 11.8x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $23.11 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Metal Fabrications require continuous execution to defend 3.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.2% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 9.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 11.8x
FORWARD P/E 9.9x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 4.92%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN 3.2%
ROIC % 28.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +15.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.03
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 43.5
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CSTMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $21.15
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>