COIN // Coinbase Global, Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001679788 ↗

Financials • Digital Asset Exchange, Institutional Custody & Stablecoin Rails • SIC 6199

$143.54 ▼ -17.05 (-10.62%)

MKT CAP: $37.87B • VOL: 20.78M

52W L $137 52W H $368

ALTMAN Z

2.69 GREY

PIOTROSKI

3 / 9

COIN // WSG GEEKSCORE™ & 5-PILLAR PROPRIETARY RATING 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: 58/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-10-31

GRADE C

TOTAL GEEKSCORE™

58 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

F 0 D 35 C 50 B 70 A+ 85

Neutral / Battleground Ticker

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

FCF -21.8% vs NI -51.1% • ROIC-WACC -12.1% • Z 2.69

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

15 / 20

SOLID

NET GEX -37% • CALL SWEEP 87% • P/C 0.84

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 1 CRIT / 1 MED • ESCALATING

ALERT

Why did COIN's Insider Conviction & Macro Regime Fit sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever COIN is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON COIN)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // WSG CEO TRUTH-SCORE™ (68%)SIFTER 03 // EXECUTIVE DISCLOSURE vs INSIDER TAPE

SEVERITY: 68/100 Z-SCORE: +2.39σ

COIN CEO Truth-Score Falls to 68% as 1 Insider Offloads $3.9M Post-Filing

WSG CEO TRUTH-SCORE™

68% / 100%

HEDGING & REDLINE SPIKE

2 HEDGES • 1 CRIT DIFFS

30D INSIDER DISPOSITIONS

$3.9M (1 FILERS)

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // 10-K/Q TONE × 30D FORM 4]

Executive Disclosure / Transcript LexiconSEC 10-K/10-Q Risk RedlineSEC Form 4 (30D Post-Filing)

Coinbase Global's CEO Truth-Score dropped to 68% / 100% alongside 2 hedging hits and 1 critical redline difference, reflecting a 2.39 z-score anomaly across disclosure feeds. Executive communication divergences are compounded by Form 4 filings showing $3.9M in dispositions from 1 insider over the 30-day post-filing window. This quantitative mismatch between evasive executive lexicon and concurrent insider selling signals elevated governance risk for institutional desks.

COIN // HISTORICAL PRICE & TECHNICAL WORKSTATION1Y: -58.25%

2026-10-30O $159.7H $163.6L $136.9C $143.5VOL 47.04M

SMA50: $179.7SMA200: $178.3

COIN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 34/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Coinbase presents an uncompelling risk/reward skew, trading at an extreme 161.4x Forward P/E and 121.1x EV/EBITDA against a -26.6% YoY revenue contraction and a negative net margin of -12.5%. Capital efficiency has deteriorated to a 1.4% ROIC, while balance sheet forensic markers (Piotroski F-Score 3/9, Altman Z-Score 2.69 in the Grey Zone) reflect severe fundamental deceleration across recent quarterly prints. With the stock trading at $143.54 beneath its 50D SMA ($179.74) and carrying a high equity beta of 2.81, near-term multiples face aggressive compression risks without an immediate rebound in retail transaction velocity.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Institutional Custody & Stablecoin Rail Monopolies

COIN retains structural institutional moat exposure via BlackRock spot ETF custody (18% customer exposure) and Circle USDC reserve yield sharing (28% exposure), which underpinned $405.5M in Q3 2026 FCF.

FCF YIELD: 3.72% | Q3 2026 FCF: $405.5M | CRCL EXP: 28%

02. Balance Sheet Liquidity Buffer

Despite earnings volatility, COIN holds $8.60B in total cash against $5.95B in total debt, maintaining a conservative Debt-to-Equity ratio of 0.43x that mitigates systemic solvency risk.

CASH: $8.60B | DEBT-TO-EQUITY: 0.43x | ALTMAN Z: 2.69

03. Mean Reversion Positioning from Oversold Technicals

RSI-14 sits at 31.9 approaching deeply oversold territory, with spot price ($143.54) sitting significantly below the options market Max Pain strike of $180.00.

RSI-14: 31.9 | MAX PAIN: $180.00 | 50D SMA: $179.74

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Terminal Multiple Disconnect Against Shrinking Top Line

COIN trades at an unsustainable valuation of 121.1x EV/EBITDA and 161.4x Forward P/E in the face of a -26.6% YoY top-line contraction and -12.5% net margin.

FORWARD P/E: 161.4x | EV/EBITDA: 121.1x | REV YOY: -26.6%

02. Collapsing Operating Leverage and Capital Efficiency

Operating margins eroded to 3.6% (and turned negative in Q1 and Q2 2026 at -1.5% and -9.3%), dragging full ROIC down to 1.4% from 35.0% in FY 2024, driving a degraded Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.

ROIC: 1.4% | OPERATING MARGIN: 3.6% | PIOTROSKI: 3/9

03. Severe High-Beta Macro and Spreads Fragility

With an equity beta of 2.81, COIN shows extreme negative elasticity to credit spread widening (r = -0.38 vs BAMLH0A0HYM2) and volatility shocks (r = -0.35 vs VIXCLS), exposing the equity to outsized downside during macro risk-off liquidity sweeps.

BETA: 2.81 | BAMLH0A0HYM2 r: -0.38 | VIXCLS r: -0.35

KEY CATALYST // Q4 2026 earnings release and transaction volume disclosures against an options implied move of 13.8%, where failure to defend the $136.89 52-week low will prompt institutional re-rating toward fundamental cash flow parity.

MACRO REGIME // COIN functions as an ultra-high beta macro liquidity instrument with inverse sensitivity to credit risk (BAMLH0A0HYM2 Pearson r=-0.38, R²=0.15; +50 bps spread widening maps to -13.07% weekly return) and VIX spikes (VIXCLS Pearson r=-0.35, R²=0.12), alongside direct positive correlation to consumer animal spirits (UMCSENT Pearson r=+0.38, R²=0.14).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
Renaissance Technologies	BUY	$152.2M
Andreessen Marc L	SELL	$3.9M
Haas Alesia J	SELL	$8.0M
Andreessen Marc L	SELL	$1.4M

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
$140 (2026-12-18)	CALL	$15.5M
$142 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$5.9M
$148 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$3.4M
$143 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$5.3M

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E —

FORWARD P/E 161.4x

EV / EBITDA 121.1x

FCF YIELD 3.72%

GROSS MARGIN —

OPERATING MARGIN 3.6%

NET MARGIN -12.5%

ROIC % 1.4%

REV GROWTH YOY -26.6%

DILUTED EPS TTM $-2.77

DEBT / EQUITY 0.43x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 31.9

5Y EQUITY BETA 2.81

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

BAMLH0A0HYM2 // ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) -0.38 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.38, R² = 14.8% over 156W): a +50 bps rise in BAMLH0A0HYM2 historically maps to -13.07% weekly return elasticity on COIN.

UMCSENT // University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index +0.38 r

Moderate positive linkage (r = +0.38, R² = 14.4% over 257W): a +1 unit move in UMCSENT historically maps to +2.83% weekly return elasticity on COIN.

VIXCLS // CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -0.35 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.35, R² = 12.3% over 260W): a +5.0 pt volatility spike in VIXCLS historically maps to -6.76% weekly return elasticity on COIN.

PCEPI // Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index -0.22 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.22, R² = 4.7% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in PCEPI historically maps to -34.02% weekly return elasticity on COIN.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // COINPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

58/100ELEVATED REGIME HEADWIND

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

BAMLH0A0HYM2 // -0.38 r

Latest: 3.26%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-5.20%