ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CNOB // ConnectOne Bancorp Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000712771 ↗
Financials • Major Banks
$32.11 ▼ -0.50 (-1.53%)
MKT CAP: $1.77B • VOL: 238.5K
CNOB // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // C- (RQD 61) -> C+ (RQD 67)
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
67 / 100 +6D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +77.5% vs NI +9% • ROIC-WACC -3.9% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 86% • VS 200D +8.4% • RSI 61.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +5.7% • P/E 20.5x • F-SCORE 5/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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CNOB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.03%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $32.57H $32.61L $32.11C $32.11VOL 278.1K
RES: $33.57SUP: $28.77SMA50: $31.32SMA200: $30.09
$34.71$32.34$29.97$27.60$25.23RES $33.57SUP $28.77$32.112026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
CNOB // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 46/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 5.1% return on invested capital within Financials (Major Banks), balanced against a 22.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 5.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 5.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of — paired with 5.70% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: — // FCF YLD: 5.70%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 22.0x trailing P/E (20.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 22.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $32.11 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Major Banks require continuous execution to defend — net margins.

NET MARGIN: — // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 20.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 22.0x
FORWARD P/E 20.5x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 5.70%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN —
ROIC % 5.1%
REV GROWTH YOY —
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.48
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.80%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 61.3
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CNOBPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $29.38
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>