ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CERT // Certara Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001827090 ↗
Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software
$11.20 ▼ -0.28 (-2.44%)
MKT CAP: $1.71B • VOL: 2.75M
CERT // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // D (RQD 50) -> C (RQD 63)
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
63 / 100 +13D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF +19.9% vs NI +86.8% • ROIC-WACC -7.7% • Z 2.4
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 91% • VS 200D +53.8% • RSI 67.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.06 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.19
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

Why did CERT's Insider & Capital Conviction & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever CERT is Upgraded or Downgraded.

CERT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +80.94%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $11.48H $11.48L $11.20C $11.20VOL 2.75M
RES: $11.89SUP: $8.71SMA50: $9.07SMA200: $7.28
$12.24$10.13$8.02$5.91$3.79RES $11.89SUP $8.71$11.202026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
CERT // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 44/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Certara Inc. (CERT) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 1.4% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 80.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 5.0% operating margin and 1.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 1.4% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.7% paired with 5.54% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.7% // FCF YLD: 5.54%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.40 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.40 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 80.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $11.20 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend -0.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -0.4% // D/E: 0.27x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 80.4x
FCF YIELD 5.54%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 5.0%
NET MARGIN -0.4%
ROIC % 1.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 0.27x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 67.9
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CERTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $10.25
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for CERT & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>