ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

BAER // Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001941536 ↗
Industrials • Aerospace
$0.41 ▼ -0.02 (-4.71%)
MKT CAP: $23.8M • VOL: 782.7K
BAER // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 56/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
56 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF -120% vs NI +126.6% • ROIC-WACC +2.4% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 100% • VS 200D +108.3% • RSI 37
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
15 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 5 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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BAER // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -79.80%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $0.39H $0.43L $0.39C $0.41VOL 410.9K
RES: $1.31SUP: $0.17SMA50: $0.80SMA200: $1.76
$2.77$2.12$1.48$0.83$0.19RES $1.31SUP $0.17$0.412026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
BAER // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 61/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) exhibits 42.1% gross margins and 14.0% return on invested capital within Industrials (Aerospace), balanced against a 5.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 42.1% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 14.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 14.0% // GM: 42.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +24.6% paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +24.6% // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 5.8x trailing P/E (4.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 5.8x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $0.41 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Aerospace require continuous execution to defend 3.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.4% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 4.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 5.8x
FORWARD P/E 4.9x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN 42.1%
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN 3.4%
ROIC % —
REV GROWTH YOY +24.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.17
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 25.0
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // BAERPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $0.38
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>