ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AWR // American States Water Company

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001056903 ↗
Utilities • Water Supply
$85.35 ▲ +0.91 (+1.08%)
MKT CAP: $3.38B • VOL: 290.8K
AWR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 63/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
63 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +78.7% vs NI +9.4% • ROIC-WACC +0.9% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
13 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 70% • VS 200D +4.7% • RSI 57.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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AWR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.36%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $86.49H $87.00L $84.83C $85.35VOL 212.1K
RES: $94.63SUP: $79.05SMA50: $85.24SMA200: $80.09
$92.97$87.80$82.63$77.46$72.29RES $94.63SUP $79.05$85.352026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
AWR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 50/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

American States Water Company (AWR) exhibits 90.8% gross margins and 8.9% return on invested capital within Utilities (Water Supply), balanced against a 10.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 90.8% gross profitability converts into 30.9% operating margin and 8.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.9% // GM: 90.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +10.5% paired with -0.21% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +10.5% // FCF YLD: -0.21%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 25.9x trailing P/E (24.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 25.9x // EV/EBITDA: 10.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $85.35 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Water Supply require continuous execution to defend 19.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 19.8% // D/E: 0.75x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 24.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 25.9x
FORWARD P/E 24.1x
EV / EBITDA 10.2x
FCF YIELD -0.21%
GROSS MARGIN 90.8%
OPERATING MARGIN 30.9%
NET MARGIN 19.8%
ROIC % 8.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +10.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $3.29
DEBT / EQUITY 0.75x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.21%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 59.9
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AWRPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $78.10
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>