ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ASTH // Astrana Health Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001083446 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Professional Services
$36.62 ▼ -0.05 (-0.14%)
MKT CAP: $1.82B • VOL: 256.2K
ASTH // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 58/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
58 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +136.6% vs NI -52% • ROIC-WACC -2.7% • Z 2.54
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
20 BASE - 8 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did ASTH's Whale & Options Flow & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever ASTH is Upgraded or Downgraded.

ASTH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.26%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $36.62H $36.76L $35.84C $36.62VOL 236.7K
RES: $39.48SUP: $30.83SMA50: $37.09SMA200: $33.84
$53.37$46.04$38.71$31.38$24.06RES $39.48SUP $30.83$36.622026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
ASTH // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 56/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 4.6% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Professional Services), balanced against a 27.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 2.5% operating margin and 4.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 4.6% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +56.4% paired with 5.75% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +56.4% // FCF YLD: 5.75%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.54 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.54 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 75.7x trailing P/E (63.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 75.7x // EV/EBITDA: 27.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $36.62 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Professional Services require continuous execution to defend 0.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 0.8% // D/E: 1.27x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 63.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 75.7x
FORWARD P/E 63.6x
EV / EBITDA 27.3x
FCF YIELD 5.75%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 2.5%
NET MARGIN 0.8%
ROIC % 4.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +56.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.48
DEBT / EQUITY 1.27x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.43%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 46.7
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ASTHPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $33.51
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for ASTH & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>