ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ARCO // Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A)

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001508478 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Restaurants
$6.90 ▼ -0.02 (-0.29%)
MKT CAP: $1.45B • VOL: 1.79M
ARCO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 57/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
57 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +124.7% vs NI +42.6% • ROIC-WACC +11.8% • Z 2.1
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +1% • P/E 6.4x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
9 / 20
WARNING
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

Why did ARCO's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever ARCO is Upgraded or Downgraded.

ARCO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.65%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $6.89H $6.90L $6.71C $6.90VOL 2.19M
RES: $8.16SUP: $6.31SMA50: $7.73SMA200: $8.21
$9.44$8.69$7.94$7.19$6.44RES $8.16SUP $6.31$6.902026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
ARCO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 54/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) exhibits 96.0% gross margins and 18.9% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Restaurants), balanced against a 3.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 96.0% gross profitability converts into 7.8% operating margin and 18.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 18.9% // GM: 96.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.7% paired with 1.03% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.7% // FCF YLD: 1.03%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.10 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.10 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 6.9x trailing P/E (6.4x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 6.9x // EV/EBITDA: 3.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $6.90 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Restaurants require continuous execution to defend 4.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 4.5% // D/E: 1.46x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 6.4x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 6.9x
FORWARD P/E 6.4x
EV / EBITDA 3.7x
FCF YIELD 1.03%
GROSS MARGIN 96.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 7.8%
NET MARGIN 4.5%
ROIC % 18.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.01
DEBT / EQUITY 1.46x
DIVIDEND YIELD 3.48%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 31.0
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ARCOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $6.31
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>