ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ALRM // Alarm.com Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001459200 ↗
Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software
$66.54 ▲ +1.62 (+2.50%)
MKT CAP: $3.27B • VOL: 545.4K
ALRM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 73/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
73 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF -30.2% vs NI +7.4% • ROIC-WACC +56% • Z 2.94
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +4.2% • P/E 23.1x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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ALRM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +49.83%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $67.22H $67.41L $64.50C $66.54VOL 721.5K
RES: $74.41SUP: $53.57SMA50: $57.01SMA200: $50.06
$69.22$61.71$54.19$46.67$39.16RES $74.41SUP $53.57$66.542026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
ALRM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM) exhibits 66.1% gross margins and 64.6% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 15.6x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 66.1% gross profitability converts into 13.2% operating margin and 64.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 64.6% // GM: 66.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +7.6% paired with 4.20% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +7.6% // FCF YLD: 4.20%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.94 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.94 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.8x trailing P/E (23.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.8x // EV/EBITDA: 15.6x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $66.54 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend 13.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 13.0% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 24.8x
FORWARD P/E 23.1x
EV / EBITDA 15.6x
FCF YIELD 4.20%
GROSS MARGIN 66.1%
OPERATING MARGIN 13.2%
NET MARGIN 13.0%
ROIC % 64.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +7.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.68
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 74.7
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ALRMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $60.89
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>