ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AGO // Assured Guaranty Ltd.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001273813 ↗
Financials • Property-Casualty Insurers
$70.88 ▲ +1.56 (+2.25%)
MKT CAP: $3.12B • VOL: 505.7K
AGO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 63/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
63 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +200% vs NI +33.8% • ROIC-WACC -0.1% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +8.3% • P/E 5.8x • F-SCORE 4/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

Why did AGO's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever AGO is Upgraded or Downgraded.

AGO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.46%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $71.73H $71.73L $69.99C $70.88VOL 350.8K
RES: $91.54SUP: $65.84SMA50: $71.27SMA200: $79.00
$88.32$82.61$76.89$71.18$65.47RES $91.54SUP $65.84$70.882026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
AGO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 8.9% return on invested capital within Financials (Property-Casualty Insurers), balanced against a 6.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 8.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.9% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of — paired with 8.31% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: — // FCF YLD: 8.31%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 6.2x trailing P/E (5.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 6.2x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $70.88 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Property-Casualty Insurers require continuous execution to defend — net margins.

NET MARGIN: — // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 5.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 6.2x
FORWARD P/E 5.8x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 8.31%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN —
ROIC % 8.9%
REV GROWTH YOY —
DILUTED EPS TTM $11.44
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.18%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 50.9
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AGOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $64.86
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>