ROARABLE // PRO
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AGCC // Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (Class A)

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0002060016 ↗
Consumer Staples • Beverages (Production/Distribution)
$15.24 ▲ +0.83 (+5.73%)
MKT CAP: $872.8M • VOL: 2.1K
AGCC // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 48/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
48 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
7 / 20
WARNING
FCF +0% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC -7.2% • Z 26
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 66% • VS 200D +3.7% • RSI 68.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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AGCC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.41%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $15.03H $15.24L $14.81C $15.24VOL 1.0K
RES: $17.95SUP: $10.20SMA50: $14.59SMA200: $14.90
$22.43$19.38$16.34$13.29$10.25RES $17.95SUP $10.20$15.242026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
AGCC // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (Class A) (AGCC) exhibits 30.4% gross margins and 1.4% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 30.4% gross profitability converts into 12.6% operating margin and 1.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 1.4% // GM: 30.4%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +144.6% paired with -0.86% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +144.6% // FCF YLD: -0.86%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 26.00 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 26.00 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $15.24 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Beverages (Production/Distribution) require continuous execution to defend 9.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 9.8% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -0.86%
GROSS MARGIN 30.4%
OPERATING MARGIN 12.6%
NET MARGIN 9.8%
ROIC % 1.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +144.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 49.3
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AGCCPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $13.95
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>