JPM // JPMorgan Chase & Co.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000019617 ↗

Financials • Money Center Banking, Investment Banking & Asset Management • SIC 6021

$337.04 ▼ -6.54 (-1.90%)

MKT CAP: $900.38B • VOL: 7.83M

52W L $279 52W H $367

ALTMAN Z

0.37 RISK

PIOTROSKI

2 / 9

JPM // WSG GEEKSCORE™ & 5-PILLAR PROPRIETARY RATING 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: 64/100 [C] (+1 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-10-31

GRADE C

TOTAL GEEKSCORE™

65 / 100 +1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

F 0 D 35 C 50 B 70 A+ 85

Neutral / Battleground Ticker

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

16 / 20

STRONG

NET GEX +28% • CALL SWEEP 82% • P/C 1.12

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

13 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.12 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.59

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 1 CRIT / 2 MED • ESCALATING

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON JPM)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 83/100 Z-SCORE: +2.43σ

JPM Bearish Accrual Watch: Cash Conversion Gap Hits +117.6% (NI vs OCF) as Z-Score Reaches 2.43

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+117.6% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+0.0% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

Multi-feed surveillance detects an acute accounting divergence as net income growth fell -2.4% while operating cash flow growth contracted -120%, driving a +117.6% (NI vs OCF) cash conversion gap. The resulting anomaly registers a statistical z-score of 2.43 despite receivables bloat vs revenue holding flat at +0.0%. Furthermore, SEC Form 4 filings confirm 0 open-mkt dumps over the past 60 days, leaving institutional desks to weigh structural earnings quality decay against dormant insider liquidations.

JPM // HISTORICAL PRICE & TECHNICAL WORKSTATION1Y: +8.33%

2026-10-30O $334.0H $345.8L $333.2C $337.0VOL 29.87M

SMA50: $343.3SMA200: $323.0

JPM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 68/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

JPMorgan Chase presents a high-quality balance sheet compounder trading at 13.8x Trailing P/E and 13.6x Forward P/E, supported by an elite 42.1% Operating Margin and 17.4% ROIC. While headline Free Cash Flow Yield of -18.05% reflects massive commercial bank balance sheet expansion and loan-book originations, top-line acceleration to 27.7% YoY in Q2 2026 confirms dominant pricing power and trading desk share. Near-term asymmetry leans positive toward the $394.54 mean consensus target, though intermediate chop between the $343.29 50D SMA and $322.95 200D SMA requires disciplined scale-in sizing.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Underlying Earnings Power and ROIC Inflection

Operating leverage expanded sharply in Q2 2026, delivering 48.0% Operating Margin and $21.16B in Net Income on $57.35B in revenue, driving quarterly ROIC up to 22.6% against a TTM baseline of 17.4%.

OPERATING MARGIN: 42.1% | ROIC: 17.4% | TTM EPS: $23.35

02. Dominant Corporate and Retail Moat Defensibility

JPM retains massive liquidity reserves of $309.81B in cash with a low 0.19x Debt-to-Equity ratio, while locking in non-interest revenue streams via 44% customer corporate treasury exposure to AAPL and 43% exposure to AMZN consumer ecosystems.

DEBT-TO-EQUITY: 0.19x | CASH: $309.81B | REV YOY: 13.5%

03. Compressed Valuation Relative to Through-Cycle Capital Returns

At 13.6x Forward P/E and 9.7x EV/EBITDA paired with a 1.96% dividend yield, the stock trades at an attractive entry relative to the Street mean price target of $394.54, implying 17.1% upside potential from the current $337.04 price.

FORWARD P/E: 13.6x | EV/EBITDA: 9.7x | DIV YIELD: 1.96%

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Severe Operating Cash Outflows and Synthetic FCF Deficit

Reported TTM Free Cash Flow Yield stands at -18.05%, driven by consecutive large cash burns including -$25.28B in Q2 2026, -$211.76B in Q1 2026, and -$147.78B in FY 2025, which limits immediate unencumbered cash distributions.

FCF YIELD: -18.05% | FY2025 FCF: -$147.78B | Q1 2026 FCF: -$211.76B

02. Credit Spread Sensitivity and High-Yield Contagion Risk

Desk sensitivity modeling reveals strong downside elasticity to widening credit spreads; with HY OAS currently tight at 3.26%, a standard +50 bps blowout historically induces a -5.75% weekly return contraction on JPM equity.

BAMLH0A0HYM2: 3.26% | PEARSON R: -0.59 | SPREAD ELASTICITY: -5.75%

03. Options Defensive Skew and Sub-50-Day Moving Average Weakness

Technicals reflect near-term institutional hedging, marked by a Put/Call ratio of 1.12, price rejection below the 50D SMA ($343.29), an RSI-14 of 49.0, and gravitational pull toward the $330.00 Max Pain strike.

PUT/CALL: 1.12 | MAX PAIN: $330.00 | 50D SMA: $343.29

KEY CATALYST // Q3 2026 Earnings Release and Net Interest Income (NII) guidance update, where options markets price a 4.8% implied move against the $330.00 max pain level; a sustained hold above the $343.29 50D SMA unlocks re-rating toward the $394.54 consensus target.

MACRO REGIME // JPM exhibits strong negative sensitivity to credit spread widening (BAMLH0A0HYM2 OAS at 3.26%, r = -0.59, R² = 0.35) and volatility spikes (VIXCLS at 17.2, r = -0.55, R² = 0.30, where a +5.0 pt spike cuts returns by -2.95%). Conversely, macro resilience is bolstered by modest positive correlation to labor slack (UNRATE at 4.2%, r = +0.24), while PCE inflation expansions act as an intermediate headwind (PCEPI at 132.257, r = -0.22).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
Leopold Robin	SELL	$882.0K
Leopold Robin	SELL	$903.5K
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin)	BUY	$207.4M
Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett)	BUY	$460.7M

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
$333 (2026-11-06)	PUT	$215.9K
$338 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$276.2K
$340 (2026-11-27)	CALL	$153.7K
$318 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$339.8K

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 13.8x

FORWARD P/E 13.6x

EV / EBITDA 9.7x

FCF YIELD -18.05%

GROSS MARGIN —

OPERATING MARGIN 42.1%

NET MARGIN 32.6%

ROIC % 17.4%

REV GROWTH YOY +13.5%

DILUTED EPS TTM $23.35

DEBT / EQUITY 0.19x

DIVIDEND YIELD 1.96%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 49.0

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.00

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

BAMLH0A0HYM2 // ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) -0.59 r

Strong inverse linkage (r = -0.59, R² = 34.6% over 156W): a +50 bps rise in BAMLH0A0HYM2 historically maps to -5.75% weekly return elasticity on JPM.

VIXCLS // CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -0.55 r

Strong inverse linkage (r = -0.55, R² = 30.3% over 260W): a +5.0 pt volatility spike in VIXCLS historically maps to -2.95% weekly return elasticity on JPM.

UNRATE // US Civilian Unemployment Rate (U-3) +0.24 r

Tactical positive linkage (r = +0.24, R² = 6% over 257W): a +50 bps rise in UNRATE historically maps to +10.47% weekly return elasticity on JPM.

PCEPI // Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index -0.22 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.22, R² = 4.8% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in PCEPI historically maps to -8.83% weekly return elasticity on JPM.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // JPMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

73/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

BAMLH0A0HYM2 // -0.59 r

Latest: 3.26%