WMT // Walmart Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000104169 ↗

Consumer Staples • Omnichannel Hypermarkets, Grocery & Retail Media • SIC 5331

$123.51 ▲ +2.26 (+1.86%)

MKT CAP: $972.82B • VOL: 29.60M

52W L $99 52W H $135

GEEKSCORE™

B • 71/100

ALTMAN Z

6.23 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

WMT // WSG GEEKSCORE™ & 5-PILLAR PROPRIETARY RATING 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: 70/100 [B] (+1 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-10-31

GRADE B

TOTAL GEEKSCORE™

71 / 100 +1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

F 0 D 35 C 50 B 70 A+ 85

Accumulate / Smart-Money Inflow

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

17 / 20

STRONG

FCF +17.9% vs NI +12.6% • ROIC-WACC +13.1% • Z 6.23

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

14 / 20

SOLID

NET GEX +33% • CALL SWEEP 38% • P/C 0.77

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 1 CRIT / 2 MED • ESCALATING

ALERT

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WMT // HISTORICAL PRICE & TECHNICAL WORKSTATION1Y: +22.07%

2026-10-30O $119.7H $124.5L $118.1C $123.5VOL 92.15M

SMA50: $110.2SMA200: $118.5

WMT // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 63/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Walmart displays best-in-class operating leverage with ROIC expanding to 20.1% and Q2 2027 Gross Margin reaching 26.1%, but valuation leaves zero margin of safety at 35.5x Forward P/E and a compressed 1.39% FCF yield. While balance sheet quality remains fortified at an Altman Z of 6.23 and Debt-to-Equity of 0.41x, technical extension (RSI-14 at 72.7) limits immediate upside to street consensus targets of $146.94. We advocate disciplined accumulation on pullbacks toward the 50D SMA of $110.23 rather than chasing at 22.5x EV/EBITDA.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. High-Margin Retail Media and Automation Accretion

Walmart Connect and automated supply chain initiatives via Symbotic are materially driving structural margin expansion, lifting quarterly Gross Margin from 24.7% in Q4 2026 to 26.1% in Q2 2027 and generating $6.37B in Q2 net income.

GROSS MARGIN: 26.1% | ROIC: 20.1% | SYM EXPOSURE: 14%

02. Fortress Balance Sheet and Consistent Capital Efficiency

The balance sheet remains exceptionally insulated from refinancing risk with Debt-to-Equity contained at 0.41x and an Altman Z-score of 6.23, backed by Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 reflecting robust working capital and earnings quality.

ALTMAN Z: 6.23 | PIOTROSKI F: 7/9 | DEBT/EQUITY: 0.41x

03. Sustained Scale Advantages and Market Share Capture

Despite mature hypermarket penetration, top-line trajectory delivered 6.2% YoY revenue growth and 5.9% YoY expansion in Q2 2027 to $187.94B, proving defensive volume gains across grocery vendor relationships.

REV YOY: 6.2% | Q2 REV: $187.94B | BETA: 0.57

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Stretched Absolute Multiples Limit Multiple Expansion

WMT trades at historically elevated multiples of 44.1x Trailing P/E and 22.5x EV/EBITDA, leaving the equity vulnerable to sharp de-rating given an anemic FCF Yield of 1.39% and heavy annual capex reaching $26.64B in FY 2026.

TRAILING P/E: 44.1x | EV/EBITDA: 22.5x | FCF YIELD: 1.39%

02. Technical Overextension and Max Pain Magnetic Drag

With RSI-14 overbought at 72.7 and the stock trading at $123.51—significantly above its 50D SMA of $110.23 and options Max Pain strike of $110.00—the near-term skew risks a sharp mean-reversion move.

RSI-14: 72.7 | 50D SMA: $110.23 | MAX PAIN: $110.00

03. Quarterly FCF Volatility Amid Escalating Capex

Quarterly free cash flow demonstrated negative swings, dipping to -$1.95B in Q1 2027 as quarterly CapEx requirements touched $7.50B in Q2 2027, creating potential dividend coverage friction if gross margins slip.

Q1 FCF: -$1.95B | Q2 CAPEX: $7.50B | DIV YIELD: 0.80%

KEY CATALYST // Next quarterly earnings release with an options implied move of 6.4%, where institutional focus will center on whether high-margin advertising and automated DC rollouts sustain the 26.1% Gross Margin against rising CapEx run-rates.

MACRO REGIME // WMT displays negative sensitivity to broader inflation and labor prints: CPIAUCSL (Pearson r=-0.23, -6.07% return elasticity per +1.0% CPI expansion) and PCEPI (r=-0.23, -8.5% elasticity), while nonfarm payroll acceleration (PAYEMS r=-0.20, -12.55% elasticity) compresses relative outperformance during cyclical economic accelerations.

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
Furner John R.	SELL	$1.6M
Watkins Latriece	SELL	$575.0K
Nicholas Christopher James	SELL	$349.7K
Bartlett Daniel J	SELL	$416.6K

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
$125 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$425.0K
$124 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$551.1K
$120 (2026-11-06)	PUT	$166.5K
$123 (2026-11-13)	PUT	$573.4K

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 44.1x

FORWARD P/E 35.5x

EV / EBITDA 22.5x

FCF YIELD 1.39%

GROSS MARGIN 25.2%

OPERATING MARGIN 4.4%

NET MARGIN 3.0%

ROIC % 20.1%

REV GROWTH YOY +6.2%

DILUTED EPS TTM $2.76

DEBT / EQUITY 0.41x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.80%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 72.7

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.57

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

VIXCLS // CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -0.27 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.27, R² = 7.2% over 260W): a +5.0 pt volatility spike in VIXCLS historically maps to -1.34% weekly return elasticity on WMT.

CPIAUCSL // Consumer Price Index: Headline All Items (CPI-U) -0.23 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.23, R² = 5.2% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in CPIAUCSL historically maps to -6.07% weekly return elasticity on WMT.

PCEPI // Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index -0.23 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.23, R² = 5.1% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in PCEPI historically maps to -8.5% weekly return elasticity on WMT.

PAYEMS // Total Nonfarm Payrolls Employment -0.20 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.20, R² = 4.2% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in PAYEMS historically maps to -12.55% weekly return elasticity on WMT.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // WMTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

49/100ELEVATED REGIME HEADWIND

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

VIXCLS // -0.27 r

Latest: 17.2 Index

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-3.56%

Implied Px: $119.11

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$1,781

On $50,000 Notional

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

WMT VS COST

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION