AWK // American Water Works Company Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001410636 ↗

Utilities • Water Supply

$142.21 ▲ +2.42 (+1.73%)

MKT CAP: $28.31B • VOL: 2.43M

52W L $121 52W H $147

ALTMAN Z

1.33 RISK

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

AWK // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 58/100 [D+] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

57 / 100 -1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.69

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

16 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON AWK)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 80/100 Z-SCORE: +2.14σ

AWK Accounting Gap: Net Income (+5.7%) Outpaced OCF (+0.7%) With +77% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+5.0% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+77.0% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on American Water Works Company Inc. (AWK) exposes a +5.0% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+5.7%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+0.7%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +77.0% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

AWK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.42%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $145.0H $146.6L $143.9C $144.4VOL 2.09M

RES: $143.8SUP: $125.6SMA50: $135.6SMA200: $132.4

AWK // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

American Water Works Company Inc. (AWK) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 8.3% return on invested capital within Utilities (Water Supply), balanced against a 7.8x enterprise multiple and 5.6% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 36.7% operating margin and 8.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.3% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +10.1% paired with -3.77% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +10.1% // FCF YLD: -3.77%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.33 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.33 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 25.5x trailing P/E (23.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 25.5x // EV/EBITDA: 7.8x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.6% implied move with a 0.69 put/call ratio around $139.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.6% // P/C: 0.69

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Water Supply require continuous execution to defend 21.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 21.7% // D/E: 0.66x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.61).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 25.5x

FORWARD P/E 23.7x

EV / EBITDA 7.8x

FCF YIELD -3.77%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 36.7%

NET MARGIN 21.7%

ROIC % 8.3%

REV GROWTH YOY +10.1%

DILUTED EPS TTM $5.58

DEBT / EQUITY 0.66x

DIVIDEND YIELD 2.24%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 68.5

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.61

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AWKPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $130.13

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for AWK & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

AWK VS NEE

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AWK VS CEG

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION