ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ALK // Alaska Air Group Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000766421 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Air Freight/Delivery Services
$36.15 ▲ +0.57 (+1.60%)
MKT CAP: $4.03B • VOL: 2.06M
ALK // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 64/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
64 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -35% vs NI -74.7% • ROIC-WACC -4.2% • Z 1.15
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did ALK's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever ALK is Upgraded or Downgraded.

ALK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.69%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $35.23H $35.85L $34.48C $35.71VOL 2.98M
RES: $52.09SUP: $31.30SMA50: $39.11SMA200: $44.02
$55.86$49.48$43.11$36.73$30.35RES $52.09SUP $31.30$35.712026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
ALK // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 2.9% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Air Freight/Delivery Services), balanced against a 9.6x enterprise multiple and 6.6% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 2.1% operating margin and 2.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 2.9% // GM: 41.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +21.3% paired with 15.08% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +21.3% // FCF YLD: 15.08%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.15 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.15 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 40.3x trailing P/E (33.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 40.3x // EV/EBITDA: 9.6x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.6% implied move with a 0.81 put/call ratio around $35.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.6% // P/C: 0.81
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Air Freight/Delivery Services require continuous execution to defend 0.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 0.7% // D/E: 1.16x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 33.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.92).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 40.3x
FORWARD P/E 33.9x
EV / EBITDA 9.6x
FCF YIELD 15.08%
GROSS MARGIN 41.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 2.1%
NET MARGIN 0.7%
ROIC % 2.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +21.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.90
DEBT / EQUITY 1.16x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 43.0
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.92
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ALKPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $33.08
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for ALK & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>