COMP <GO>
ZTO vs UNP // DIVIDEND YIELD & FCF PAYOUT SAFETY
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American (NYSE) VS. Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE) • 15-METRIC TALLY: ZTO 8
— UNP 7
▲ DIVIDEND YIELD & FCF PAYOUT SAFETY LEADER: ZTO
LAST: $20.15 (+1.36%) • MKT CAP: $15.31B
dividend-safety
3.51%
LAST: $304.00 (+0.69%) • MKT CAP: $179.42B
dividend-safety
1.80%
15-METRIC INSTITUTIONAL SIDE-BY-SIDE SCORECARD (ZTO VS. UNP)
EMERALD CELL = QUANTITATIVE EDGE
| INSTITUTIONAL METRIC | ZTO | UNP | SPREAD (A - B) | ADVANTAGE | DEDICATED URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Profit Margin | 25.00% | 41.00% | -16.00 | UNP | /gross-margins <GO> |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 12.50% | 20.10% | -7.60 | UNP | /roic <GO> |
| EV/EBITDA & P/E Valuation | 7.2x | 15.3x | -8.10 | ZTO | /valuation <GO> |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 6.31% | 3.06% | +3.25 | ZTO | /fcf-yield <GO> |
| Operating Margin | 21.30% | 40.20% | -18.90 | UNP | /operating-margins <GO> |
| Net Profit Margin | 18.50% | 29.10% | -10.60 | UNP | /net-margins <GO> |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | 6.60% | 1.10% | +5.50 | ZTO | /revenue-growth <GO> |
| Dividend Yield & FCF Payout Safety ACTIVE | 3.51% | 1.80% | +1.71 | ZTO | /dividend-safety <GO> |
| Altman Z-Score & Debt/Equity | 4.41 | 4.31 | +0.10 | ZTO | /balance-sheet <GO> |
| Piotroski F-Score Quality | 8/9 | 6/9 | +2.00 | ZTO | /piotroski-score <GO> |
| Options Implied Move & Put/Call Skew | 7.30% | 7.00% | +0.30 | UNP | /options-implied-move <GO> |
| RSI-14 & 200D SMA Momentum | 50.6 | 70.0 | -19.41 | UNP | /rsi-technicals <GO> |
| 10Y Yield & FRED Macro Beta | 1.11 | 1.03 | +0.08 | ZTO | /macro-sensitivity <GO> |
| Forward P/E Multiple | 11.0x | 23.3x | -12.30 | ZTO | /forward-pe <GO> |
| Enterprise Scale & Market Cap | $15.31B | $179.42B | -$164.12B | UNP | /market-cap <GO> |
5-YEAR HISTORICAL XBRL REVENUE & MARGIN TRAJECTORY SEC FORM 10-K FY
| FISCAL YEAR | ZTO REV | UNP REV | ZTO GROSS % | UNP GROSS % | ZTO FCF | UNP FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $7.02B | $24.51B | 25.0% | 44.0% | $965.8M | $5.50B |
| FY 2024 | $6.07B | $24.25B | 31.0% | 44.0% | $852.3M | $5.89B |
| FY 2023 | $0 | $24.12B | — | 44.0% | $1.88B | $7.29B |
FRED MACRO REGIME CORRELATION COMPARISON PEARSON r
ZTO // BETA 1.11
UNP // BETA 1.03