ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

YMM // Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001838413 ↗
Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software
$8.09 ▲ +0.01 (+0.12%)
MKT CAP: $8.39B • VOL: 8.24M
YMM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 70/100 [B-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B-
RQD CONFIDENCE
70 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +62.6% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC -2.8% • Z 12.55
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
17 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did YMM's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever YMM is Upgraded or Downgraded.

YMM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.24%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-10-30O $8.15H $8.38L $8.10C $8.37VOL 6.96M
RES: $8.91SUP: $7.92SMA50: $8.42SMA200: $8.79
$11.22$10.20$9.17$8.15$7.13RES $8.91SUP $7.92$8.372026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
YMM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 44/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American (YMM) exhibits 71.9% gross margins and 9.0% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 11.3x enterprise multiple and 8.3% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 71.9% gross profitability converts into 25.2% operating margin and 9.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.0% // GM: 71.9%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -2.2% paired with 6.62% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -2.2% // FCF YLD: 6.62%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 12.55 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 12.55 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 18.2x trailing P/E (16.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 18.2x // EV/EBITDA: 11.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±8.3% implied move with a 0.92 put/call ratio around $8.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±8.3% // P/C: 0.92
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend 19.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 19.7% // D/E: 0.03x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 16.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.41).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 18.2x
FORWARD P/E 16.9x
EV / EBITDA 11.3x
FCF YIELD 6.62%
GROSS MARGIN 71.9%
OPERATING MARGIN 25.2%
NET MARGIN 19.7%
ROIC % 9.0%
REV GROWTH YOY -2.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.45
DEBT / EQUITY 0.03x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.43%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 48.5
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.41
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // YMMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $7.40
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for YMM & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>