ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

UPS // United Parcel Service Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001090727 ↗
Industrials • Trucking Freight/Courier Services
$107.33 ▲ +1.71 (+1.62%)
MKT CAP: $91.31B • VOL: 4.42M
UPS // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // B- (RQD 70) -> C+ (RQD 69)
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
69 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF -23.3% vs NI -3.6% • ROIC-WACC +16.9% • Z 3.57
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did UPS's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever UPS is Upgraded or Downgraded.

UPS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.51%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $107.9H $109.1L $107.7C $108.3VOL 5.44M
RES: $103.8SUP: $87.07SMA50: $99.20SMA200: $104.6
$120.3$112.5$104.7$96.93$89.14RES $103.8SUP $87.07$108.32026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
UPS // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 55/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 24.8% return on invested capital within Industrials (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), balanced against a 9.1x enterprise multiple and 7.3% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 8.9% operating margin and 24.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 24.8% // GM: 41.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -2.6% paired with 5.22% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -2.6% // FCF YLD: 5.22%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.57 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.57 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 16.4x trailing P/E (15.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 16.4x // EV/EBITDA: 9.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.3% implied move with a 0.71 put/call ratio around $105.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.3% // P/C: 0.71
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Trucking Freight/Courier Services require continuous execution to defend 6.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 6.3% // D/E: 0.91x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 15.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.12).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 16.4x
FORWARD P/E 15.3x
EV / EBITDA 9.1x
FCF YIELD 5.22%
GROSS MARGIN 41.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 8.9%
NET MARGIN 6.3%
ROIC % 24.8%
REV GROWTH YOY -2.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $6.55
DEBT / EQUITY 0.91x
DIVIDEND YIELD 5.91%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 74.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.12
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // UPSPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $98.21
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for UPS & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>