ROARABLE // PRO
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ROAR ▸

TKR // Timken Company (The)

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000098362 ↗
Industrials • Metal Fabrications
$114.83 ▲ +1.16 (+1.02%)
MKT CAP: $7.96B • VOL: 820.0K
TKR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 69/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
69 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +29% vs NI -18.2% • ROIC-WACC +0.6% • Z 3.31
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did TKR's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever TKR is Upgraded or Downgraded.

TKR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.01%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $112.7H $113.8L $109.9C $110.9VOL 875.3K
RES: $115.9SUP: $106.3SMA50: $117.2SMA200: $117.2
$150.5$133.5$116.4$99.43$82.42RES $115.9SUP $106.3$110.92026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
TKR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 45/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Timken Company (The) (TKR) exhibits 30.4% gross margins and 9.1% return on invested capital within Industrials (Metal Fabrications), balanced against a 13.2x enterprise multiple and 7.3% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 30.4% gross profitability converts into 11.8% operating margin and 9.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.1% // GM: 30.4%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +0.2% paired with 4.37% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +0.2% // FCF YLD: 4.37%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.31 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.31 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 27.6x trailing P/E (25.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 27.6x // EV/EBITDA: 13.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.3% implied move with a 0.84 put/call ratio around $113.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.3% // P/C: 0.84
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Metal Fabrications require continuous execution to defend 6.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 6.3% // D/E: 0.59x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 25.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.11).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 27.6x
FORWARD P/E 25.7x
EV / EBITDA 13.2x
FCF YIELD 4.37%
GROSS MARGIN 30.4%
OPERATING MARGIN 11.8%
NET MARGIN 6.3%
ROIC % 9.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +0.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $4.16
DEBT / EQUITY 0.59x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.24%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 41.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.11
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TKRPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $105.07
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for TKR & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>