ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TAP // Molson Coors Beverage Company

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000024545 ↗
Consumer Staples • Beverages (Production/Distribution)
$39.21 ▼ -0.03 (-0.08%)
MKT CAP: $7.31B • VOL: 1.92M
TAP // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 59/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
59 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.80
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
15 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 5 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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TAP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.13%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $40.03H $40.20L $39.66C $40.12VOL 3.27M
RES: $41.56SUP: $34.75SMA50: $38.97SMA200: $42.42
$47.97$44.60$41.22$37.85$34.47RES $41.56SUP $34.75$40.122026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
TAP // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) exhibits 32.8% gross margins and -14.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 6.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 32.8% gross profitability converts into -17.9% operating margin and -14.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -14.0% // GM: 32.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -5.1% paired with 16.38% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -5.1% // FCF YLD: 16.38%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.82 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.82 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (23.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.8% implied move with a 0.80 put/call ratio around $38.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.8% // P/C: 0.80
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Beverages (Production/Distribution) require continuous execution to defend -16.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -16.4% // D/E: 0.38x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.97).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 23.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 16.38%
GROSS MARGIN 32.8%
OPERATING MARGIN -17.9%
NET MARGIN -16.4%
ROIC % -14.0%
REV GROWTH YOY -5.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-11.48
DEBT / EQUITY 0.38x
DIVIDEND YIELD 5.15%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 56.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.97
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TAPPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $35.88
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>