TAL // TAL Education Group

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001499620 ↗

Real Estate • Other Consumer Services

$10.14 ▲ +0.08 (+0.80%)

MKT CAP: $5.62B • VOL: 9.87M

52W L $9 52W H $13

ALTMAN Z

4.29 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

9 / 9

TAL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 67/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C+

RQD CONFIDENCE

67 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

13 / 20

SOLID

FCF +77.6% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +3.5% • Z 4.29

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

16 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON TAL)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 84/100 Z-SCORE: +2.56σ

TAL Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (+51.2%) With +-17% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+168.8% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

-17.0% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on TAL Education Group (TAL) exposes a +168.8% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+51.2%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded -17.0% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

TAL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.24%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN

2026-10-30O $10.21H $10.36L $9.83C $9.87VOL 7.42M

RES: $13.26SUP: $11.89SMA50: $11.72SMA200: $11.09

TAL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 64/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

TAL Education Group (TAL) exhibits 55.4% gross margins and 12.4% return on invested capital within Real Estate (Other Consumer Services), balanced against a 16.5x enterprise multiple and 7.2% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 55.4% gross profitability converts into 9.2% operating margin and 12.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 12.4% // GM: 55.4%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +33.7% paired with 9.04% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +33.7% // FCF YLD: 9.04%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.29 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.29 // F-SCORE: 9/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 10.6x trailing P/E (8.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 10.6x // EV/EBITDA: 16.5x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.2% implied move with a 0.89 put/call ratio around $10.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.2% // P/C: 0.89

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Other Consumer Services require continuous execution to defend 17.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 17.6% // D/E: 0.39x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 8.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.09).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 10.6x

FORWARD P/E 8.9x

EV / EBITDA 16.5x

FCF YIELD 9.04%

GROSS MARGIN 55.4%

OPERATING MARGIN 9.2%

NET MARGIN 17.6%

ROIC % 12.4%

REV GROWTH YOY +33.7%

DILUTED EPS TTM $0.96

DEBT / EQUITY 0.39x

DIVIDEND YIELD 3.40%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 25.1

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.09

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TALPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $9.28

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for TAL & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

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