ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

PHM // PulteGroup Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000822416 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Homebuilding
$124.36 ▲ +4.65 (+3.88%)
MKT CAP: $22.89B • VOL: 2.00M
PHM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // B (RQD 72) -> B- (RQD 71)
ROARABLE B-
RQD CONFIDENCE
71 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF +11.9% vs NI -28% • ROIC-WACC +7% • Z 5.23
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
17 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did PHM's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever PHM is Upgraded or Downgraded.

PHM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.95%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $125.8H $127.6L $123.6C $124.7VOL 1.95M
RES: $124.2SUP: $104.5SMA50: $119.3SMA200: $124.0
$142.4$132.8$123.3$113.7$104.2RES $124.2SUP $104.5$124.72026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PHM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 16.3% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Homebuilding), balanced against a 8.2x enterprise multiple and 6.9% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 15.6% operating margin and 16.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 16.3% // GM: 41.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -3.5% paired with 7.64% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -3.5% // FCF YLD: 7.64%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 5.23 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 5.23 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 10.3x trailing P/E (9.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 10.3x // EV/EBITDA: 8.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.9% implied move with a 0.54 put/call ratio around $122.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.9% // P/C: 0.54
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Homebuilding require continuous execution to defend 12.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 12.8% // D/E: 0.16x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 9.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.99).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 10.3x
FORWARD P/E 9.6x
EV / EBITDA 8.2x
FCF YIELD 7.64%
GROSS MARGIN 41.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 15.6%
NET MARGIN 12.8%
ROIC % 16.3%
REV GROWTH YOY -3.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $12.05
DEBT / EQUITY 0.16x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.77%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 62.7
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.99
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // PHMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $113.79
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for PHM & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>