NEE // NextEra Energy, Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000753308 ↗

Utilities • Regulated Electric Utility (FPL) & Utility-Scale Renewables • SIC 4911

$83.71 ▲ +1.57 (+1.91%)

MKT CAP: $175.69B • VOL: 23.48M

52W L $74 52W H $99

GEEKSCORE™

C • 58/100

ALTMAN Z

1.08 RISK

PIOTROSKI

6 / 9

NEE // WSG GEEKSCORE™ & 5-PILLAR PROPRIETARY RATING 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: 56/100 [C] (+2 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-10-31

GRADE C

TOTAL GEEKSCORE™

58 / 100 +2D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

F 0 D 35 C 50 B 70 A+ 85

Neutral / Battleground Ticker

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

FCF -5.8% vs NI -1.6% • ROIC-WACC -1.9% • Z 1.08

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

11 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX -44% • CALL SWEEP 18% • P/C 0.73

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

15 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 5 DEDUCT • 2 CRIT / 1 MED • ESCALATING

ALERT

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NEE // HISTORICAL PRICE & TECHNICAL WORKSTATION1Y: +2.84%

2026-10-30O $81.96H $84.40L $80.87C $83.71VOL 58.65M

SMA50: $80.24SMA200: $87.31

NEE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 52/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

NEE trades at an elevated 26.6x EV/EBITDA and 18.4x Forward P/E against a capital-intensive 4.3% ROIC, leaving long positions heavily exposed to macro rate headwinds. While generating a supportive 7.02% FCF Yield and defending a 31.8% Operating Margin anchored by 5.9M+ Florida regulated meters, total balance sheet debt has expanded aggressively to $97.78B in Q1 2026. Risk-reward is symmetrically capped below its 200D SMA ($87.31) with negative macro elasticity to benchmark yields requiring a hedged stance.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Regulated Rate-Base Monopolization and Stable Operating Cash Conversion

FPL provides defensive baseline cash generation across 5.9M+ regulated meter accounts (68% customer exposure), underpinning an operating margin of 31.8% and net margin of 31.6% alongside $12.48B in FY2025 FCF.

OPERATING MARGIN: 31.8% | NET MARGIN: 31.6% | FCF YIELD: 7.02%

02. Hyperscale Renewable PPA Pipeline Growth Offsets Top-Line Deceleration

Contracted long-term PPAs with hyperscalers (24% exposure across GOOGL, MSFT, META) insulate utility-scale renewables demand, supporting 7.5% YoY revenue growth and a 16.8% upside gap to Street Mean PT of $97.81.

REVENUE YOY: 7.5% | DILUTED EPS: $3.94 | CONSENSUS PT: $97.81

03. Constructive Options Flow and Short-Term Momentum Alignment

Options skew shows defensive call accumulation with a 0.73 Put/Call ratio, while price at $83.71 maintains support above the 50D SMA of $80.24 and Max Pain strike of $80.00.

PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.73 | 50D SMA: $80.24 | RSI-14: 65.2

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Balance Sheet Leverage Overhang and Deteriorating Solvency Margin

Total debt escalated from $61.89B in FY2022 to $97.78B in Q1 2026, driving Debt-to-Equity to 1.77x and anchoring the Altman Z-score in distressed territory at 1.08.

TOTAL DEBT: $97.78B | DEBT-TO-EQUITY: 1.77x | ALTMAN Z: 1.08

02. Capital Allocation Dilution via Sub-Cost-of-Capital Returns

Capital deployment efficiency remains structurally impaired with ROIC printing at 4.3% (and 4.6% in Q1 2026), failing to command a clean spread above DGS10 benchmark yields of 4.98% at a rich 26.6x EV/EBITDA multiple.

ROIC: 4.3% | EV/EBITDA: 26.6x | FORWARD P/E: 18.4x

03. Severe Rate Sensitivity and Real Yield Beta Drag

Equities trade below the 200D SMA ($87.31) and face significant duration vulnerability; a +50 bps shift in 10-Year TIPS Real Yields (DFII10) historically extracts -5.38% in weekly return elasticity.

200D SMA: $87.31 | DFII10: 2.63% | REAL YIELD ELASTICITY: -5.38% PER +50BPS

KEY CATALYST // Q2 2026 Earnings print and 10-Q filing (July 2026) testing the 4.8% options implied move, where management must demonstrate debt stabilization below $98B and counter margin compression to re-test the $87.31 200D SMA resistance.

MACRO REGIME // Statistically confirmed duration vulnerability via negative correlations to DFII10 (Pearson r = -0.34, R² = 0.12) and DGS10 at 4.98% (Pearson r = -0.32, R² = 0.10); persistent real yields above 2.50% compress NEE multiples by -4.48% to -5.38% per +50 bps rate shock.

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
Rep. Mark Green	BUY	$327.5K
Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller)	BUY	$119.6M
Sen. Tommy Tuberville	BUY	$266.1K
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin)	BUY	$109.9M

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
$85 (2026-11-27)	CALL	$83.5K
$86 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$66.7K
$82 (2026-11-06)	PUT	$60.8K
$87 (2026-11-13)	CALL	$88.5K

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 21.5x

FORWARD P/E 18.4x

EV / EBITDA 26.6x

FCF YIELD 7.02%

GROSS MARGIN —

OPERATING MARGIN 31.8%

NET MARGIN 31.6%

ROIC % 4.3%

REV GROWTH YOY +7.5%

DILUTED EPS TTM $3.94

DEBT / EQUITY 1.77x

DIVIDEND YIELD 2.98%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 65.2

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.54

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

DFII10 // 10-Year TIPS Constant Maturity Real Yield -0.34 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.34, R² = 11.6% over 260W): a +50 bps rise in DFII10 historically maps to -5.38% weekly return elasticity on NEE.

DGS10 // 10-Year US Treasury Constant Maturity Yield -0.32 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.32, R² = 10.3% over 260W): a +50 bps rise in DGS10 historically maps to -4.48% weekly return elasticity on NEE.

VIXCLS // CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -0.25 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.25, R² = 6.5% over 260W): a +5.0 pt volatility spike in VIXCLS historically maps to -1.45% weekly return elasticity on NEE.

PAYEMS // Total Nonfarm Payrolls Employment -0.17 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.17, R² = 3% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in PAYEMS historically maps to -12.96% weekly return elasticity on NEE.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NEEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

54/100ELEVATED REGIME HEADWIND

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.34 r

Latest: 2.63%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-4.56%