ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MTH // Meritage Homes Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000833079 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Homebuilding
$64.49 ▲ +2.47 (+3.98%)
MKT CAP: $4.20B • VOL: 1.53M
MTH // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // C+ (RQD 66) -> C (RQD 65)
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
65 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +136.1% vs NI -42.4% • ROIC-WACC -1.4% • Z 2.7
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
17 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did MTH's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever MTH is Upgraded or Downgraded.

MTH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.26%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $63.52H $66.00L $63.39C $64.47VOL 1.33M
RES: $60.81SUP: $52.03SMA50: $64.28SMA200: $68.90
$87.39$79.06$70.73$62.40$54.08RES $60.81SUP $52.03$64.472026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
MTH // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 8.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Homebuilding), balanced against a 7.7x enterprise multiple and 7.1% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 47.0% operating margin and 8.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.0% // GM: 41.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.8% paired with 2.20% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.8% // FCF YLD: 2.20%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.70 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.70 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 9.3x trailing P/E (8.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 9.3x // EV/EBITDA: 7.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.1% implied move with a 0.66 put/call ratio around $63.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.1% // P/C: 0.66
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Homebuilding require continuous execution to defend 38.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 38.5% // D/E: 0.20x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 8.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.05).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 9.3x
FORWARD P/E 8.6x
EV / EBITDA 7.7x
FCF YIELD 2.20%
GROSS MARGIN 41.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 47.0%
NET MARGIN 38.5%
ROIC % 8.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $6.95
DEBT / EQUITY 0.20x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.88%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 55.4
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.05
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MTHPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $59.01
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for MTH & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>