ROARABLE // PRO
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MTDR // Matador Resources Company

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001520006 ↗
Energy • Oil & Gas Production
$59.83 ▼ -0.01 (-0.02%)
MKT CAP: $7.40B • VOL: 1.23M
MTDR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 68/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
68 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +8.1% vs NI -14.2% • ROIC-WACC +3.4% • Z 1.8
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did MTDR's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever MTDR is Upgraded or Downgraded.

MTDR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.04%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $60.52H $60.92L $60.19C $60.88VOL 1.42M
RES: $70.62SUP: $52.98SMA50: $56.64SMA200: $54.47
$65.17$59.82$54.48$49.13$43.78RES $70.62SUP $52.98$60.882026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
MTDR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 50/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Matador Resources Company (MTDR) exhibits 94.3% gross margins and 12.1% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil & Gas Production), balanced against a 7.1x enterprise multiple and 7.1% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 94.3% gross profitability converts into 33.5% operating margin and 12.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 12.1% // GM: 94.3%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +5.1% paired with 22.00% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +5.1% // FCF YLD: 22.00%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.80 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 9.8x trailing P/E (9.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 9.8x // EV/EBITDA: 7.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.1% implied move with a 0.76 put/call ratio around $59.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.1% // P/C: 0.76
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil & Gas Production require continuous execution to defend 20.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 20.8% // D/E: 0.42x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 9.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.05).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 9.8x
FORWARD P/E 9.1x
EV / EBITDA 7.1x
FCF YIELD 22.00%
GROSS MARGIN 94.3%
OPERATING MARGIN 33.5%
NET MARGIN 20.8%
ROIC % 12.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +5.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $6.13
DEBT / EQUITY 0.42x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.20%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 65.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.05
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MTDRPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $54.75
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for MTDR & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>