ROARABLE // PRO
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MTCH // Match Group Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0000891103 ↗
Technology • Computer Software: Programming Data Processing
$42.65 ▲ +0.59 (+1.40%)
MKT CAP: $9.79B • VOL: 2.79M
MTCH // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 72/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
72 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF +16% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC +21.8% • Z 2.41
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did MTCH's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever MTCH is Upgraded or Downgraded.

MTCH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.66%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $42.39H $42.47L $41.13C $41.41VOL 5.68M
RES: $48.01SUP: $41.14SMA50: $42.25SMA200: $36.55
$47.67$43.53$39.40$35.26$31.13RES $48.01SUP $41.14$41.412026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
MTCH // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 60/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Match Group Inc. (MTCH) exhibits 72.8% gross margins and 30.4% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Programming Data Processing), balanced against a 13.4x enterprise multiple and 8.1% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 72.8% gross profitability converts into 25.0% operating margin and 30.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 30.4% // GM: 72.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +0.2% paired with 10.46% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +0.2% // FCF YLD: 10.46%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.41 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.41 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 14.4x trailing P/E (13.4x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 14.4x // EV/EBITDA: 13.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±8.1% implied move with a 0.79 put/call ratio around $42.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±8.1% // P/C: 0.79
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Programming Data Processing require continuous execution to defend 19.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 19.5% // D/E: 0.85x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 13.4x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.34).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 14.4x
FORWARD P/E 13.4x
EV / EBITDA 13.4x
FCF YIELD 10.46%
GROSS MARGIN 72.8%
OPERATING MARGIN 25.0%
NET MARGIN 19.5%
ROIC % 30.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +0.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.96
DEBT / EQUITY 0.85x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.90%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 43.0
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.34
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MTCHPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $39.03
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>