ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MSM // MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001003078 ↗
Industrials • Industrial Machinery/Components
$122.92 ▲ +0.33 (+0.27%)
MKT CAP: $6.87B • VOL: 793.6K
MSM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 71/100 [B-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B-
RQD CONFIDENCE
71 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF -22.6% vs NI -22.9% • ROIC-WACC +4.3% • Z 6.14
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
17 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did MSM's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever MSM is Upgraded or Downgraded.

MSM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.33%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $121.9H $123.2L $120.6C $121.0VOL 742.0K
RES: $134.4SUP: $111.0SMA50: $123.2SMA200: $109.4
$137.1$124.1$111.1$98.14$85.16RES $134.4SUP $111.0$121.02026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
MSM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 47/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM) exhibits 40.8% gross margins and 13.2% return on invested capital within Industrials (Industrial Machinery/Components), balanced against a 19.2x enterprise multiple and 7.1% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 40.8% gross profitability converts into 8.0% operating margin and 13.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 13.2% // GM: 40.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -1.3% paired with 3.51% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -1.3% // FCF YLD: 3.51%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 6.14 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 6.14 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 34.4x trailing P/E (32.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 34.4x // EV/EBITDA: 19.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.1% implied move with a 0.81 put/call ratio around $120.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.1% // P/C: 0.81
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Industrial Machinery/Components require continuous execution to defend 5.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 5.3% // D/E: 0.34x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 32.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.05).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 34.4x
FORWARD P/E 32.0x
EV / EBITDA 19.2x
FCF YIELD 3.51%
GROSS MARGIN 40.8%
OPERATING MARGIN 8.0%
NET MARGIN 5.3%
ROIC % 13.2%
REV GROWTH YOY -1.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $3.57
DEBT / EQUITY 0.34x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 45.5
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.05
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MSMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $112.48
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for MSM & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>