ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MO // Altria Group Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000764180 ↗
Health Care • Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products
$76.75 ▲ +3.76 (+5.15%)
MKT CAP: $128.15B • VOL: 12.53M
MO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 74/100 [B] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
73 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
20 / 20
STRONG
FCF +5.4% vs NI -38.3% • ROIC-WACC +40.9% • Z 4.9
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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MO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.41%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $78.14H $79.81L $77.57C $78.03VOL 20.52M
RES: $80.84SUP: $66.82SMA50: $70.46SMA200: $68.88
$80.97$76.17$71.37$66.57$61.77RES $80.84SUP $66.82$78.032026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
MO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 71/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Altria Group Inc. (MO) exhibits 62.5% gross margins and 48.4% return on invested capital within Health Care (Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products), balanced against a 14.7x enterprise multiple and 6.6% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 62.5% gross profitability converts into 42.5% operating margin and 48.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 48.4% // GM: 62.5%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -3.1% paired with 7.08% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -3.1% // FCF YLD: 7.08%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.90 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.90 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 18.4x trailing P/E (17.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 18.4x // EV/EBITDA: 14.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.6% implied move with a 0.54 put/call ratio around $75.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.6% // P/C: 0.54
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products require continuous execution to defend 29.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 29.8% // D/E: 0.85x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 17.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.92).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 18.4x
FORWARD P/E 17.1x
EV / EBITDA 14.7x
FCF YIELD 7.08%
GROSS MARGIN 62.5%
OPERATING MARGIN 42.5%
NET MARGIN 29.8%
ROIC % 48.4%
REV GROWTH YOY -3.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $4.16
DEBT / EQUITY 0.85x
DIVIDEND YIELD 5.43%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 69.7
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.92
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $70.23
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>