ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MAT // Mattel Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0000063276 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Recreational Games/Products/Toys
$15.48 ▲ +0.20 (+1.31%)
MKT CAP: $4.42B • VOL: 4.43M
MAT // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 67/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
67 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF -36.9% vs NI -26.6% • ROIC-WACC +5.2% • Z 3.06
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
15 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 5 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did MAT's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever MAT is Upgraded or Downgraded.

MAT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.25%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $15.52H $15.60L $15.27C $15.42VOL 4.56M
RES: $17.62SUP: $11.44SMA50: $14.98SMA200: $15.46
$18.51$16.85$15.20$13.54$11.89RES $17.62SUP $11.44$15.422026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
MAT // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 47/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Mattel Inc. (MAT) exhibits 48.7% gross margins and 13.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Recreational Games/Products/Toys), balanced against a 7.3x enterprise multiple and 7.4% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 48.7% gross profitability converts into 10.2% operating margin and 13.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 13.0% // GM: 48.7%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -0.6% paired with 7.97% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -0.6% // FCF YLD: 7.97%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.06 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.06 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 11.1x trailing P/E (10.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 11.1x // EV/EBITDA: 7.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.4% implied move with a 0.86 put/call ratio around $15.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.4% // P/C: 0.86
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Recreational Games/Products/Toys require continuous execution to defend 7.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 7.4% // D/E: 1.04x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 10.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.14).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 11.1x
FORWARD P/E 10.3x
EV / EBITDA 7.3x
FCF YIELD 7.97%
GROSS MARGIN 48.7%
OPERATING MARGIN 10.2%
NET MARGIN 7.4%
ROIC % 13.0%
REV GROWTH YOY -0.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.39
DEBT / EQUITY 1.04x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 45.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.14
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MATPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $14.16
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for MAT & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>