ROARABLE // PRO
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US TAPE
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IOT // Samsara Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001642896 ↗
Technology • EDP Services
$41.65 ▼ -1.36 (-3.16%)
MKT CAP: $24.39B • VOL: 4.53M
IOT // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 66/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
66 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +86.1% vs NI +94.1% • ROIC-WACC -12.4% • Z 13.02
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
17 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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IOT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +46.38%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $41.63H $42.30L $40.70C $42.07VOL 4.70M
RES: $51.05SUP: $38.97SMA50: $40.58SMA200: $34.26
$46.62$41.24$35.86$30.49$25.11RES $51.05SUP $38.97$42.072026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
IOT // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 52/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Samsara Inc. (IOT) exhibits 76.7% gross margins and -2.1% return on invested capital within Technology (EDP Services), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 8.3% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 76.7% gross profitability converts into -3.2% operating margin and -2.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -2.1% // GM: 76.7%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +29.6% paired with 0.85% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +29.6% // FCF YLD: 0.85%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 13.02 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 13.02 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (23.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±8.3% implied move with a 1.06 put/call ratio around $41.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±8.3% // P/C: 1.06
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in EDP Services require continuous execution to defend -0.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -0.6% // D/E: 0.33x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.42).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 23.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 0.85%
GROSS MARGIN 76.7%
OPERATING MARGIN -3.2%
NET MARGIN -0.6%
ROIC % -2.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +29.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.02
DEBT / EQUITY 0.33x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 51.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.42
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // IOTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $38.11
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for IOT & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>