ROARABLE // PRO
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EXC // Exelon Corporation

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001109357 ↗
Utilities • Power Generation
$45.91 ▲ +1.14 (+2.55%)
MKT CAP: $47.39B • VOL: 10.45M
EXC // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 54/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
54 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.83
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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EXC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.37%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $46.57H $47.09L $45.91C $46.16VOL 18.69M
RES: $51.42SUP: $38.31SMA50: $42.85SMA200: $45.61
$49.16$46.60$44.05$41.49$38.94RES $51.42SUP $38.31$46.162026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
EXC // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 45/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Exelon Corporation (EXC) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 5.4% return on invested capital within Utilities (Power Generation), balanced against a 7.6x enterprise multiple and 5.7% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 21.2% operating margin and 5.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 5.4% // GM: 41.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +5.3% paired with -4.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +5.3% // FCF YLD: -4.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.76 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.76 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 11.8x trailing P/E (11.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 11.8x // EV/EBITDA: 7.6x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.7% implied move with a 0.83 put/call ratio around $45.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.7% // P/C: 0.83
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Power Generation require continuous execution to defend 16.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 16.6% // D/E: 1.65x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 11.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.66).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 11.8x
FORWARD P/E 11.0x
EV / EBITDA 7.6x
FCF YIELD -4.80%
GROSS MARGIN 41.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 21.2%
NET MARGIN 16.6%
ROIC % 5.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +5.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $3.89
DEBT / EQUITY 1.65x
DIVIDEND YIELD 3.41%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 73.5
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.66
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // EXCPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $42.01
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for EXC & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>