ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CHEF // The Chefs' Warehouse Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001517175 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Food Distributors
$101.56 ▼ -5.83 (-5.43%)
MKT CAP: $4.41B • VOL: 1.11M
CHEF // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 59/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
59 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.95
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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CHEF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +34.32%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $102.4H $104.5L $102.0C $104.2VOL 561.0K
RES: $119.1SUP: $95.45SMA50: $110.7SMA200: $86.98
$122.4$106.2$90.07$73.90$57.73RES $119.1SUP $95.45$104.22026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
CHEF // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 41/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

The Chefs' Warehouse Inc. (CHEF) exhibits 24.2% gross margins and 9.5% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Food Distributors), balanced against a 16.5x enterprise multiple and 7.2% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 24.2% gross profitability converts into 3.5% operating margin and 9.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.5% // GM: 24.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +9.4% paired with -1.30% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +9.4% // FCF YLD: -1.30%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.58 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.58 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 61.0x trailing P/E (56.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 61.0x // EV/EBITDA: 16.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.2% implied move with a 0.95 put/call ratio around $100.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.2% // P/C: 0.95
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Food Distributors require continuous execution to defend 1.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.7% // D/E: 1.19x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 56.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.08).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 61.0x
FORWARD P/E 56.7x
EV / EBITDA 16.5x
FCF YIELD -1.30%
GROSS MARGIN 24.2%
OPERATING MARGIN 3.5%
NET MARGIN 1.7%
ROIC % 9.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +9.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.66
DEBT / EQUITY 1.19x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 41.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.08
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CHEFPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $92.93
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>