ROARABLE // PRO
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CAKE // Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (The)

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0000887596 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Restaurants
$113.12 ▲ +7.39 (+6.99%)
MKT CAP: $5.63B • VOL: 2.47M
CAKE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // B (RQD 72) -> B- (RQD 71)
ROARABLE B-
RQD CONFIDENCE
71 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF +43.6% vs NI -5.7% • ROIC-WACC +11.9% • Z 3.02
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did CAKE's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever CAKE is Upgraded or Downgraded.

CAKE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +79.16%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $114.4H $115.9L $109.8C $112.6VOL 1.63M
RES: $119.4SUP: $98.27SMA50: $108.0SMA200: $79.68
$123.0$104.8$86.60$68.39$50.18RES $119.4SUP $98.27$112.62026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
CAKE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 53/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (The) (CAKE) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 18.9% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Restaurants), balanced against a 19.2x enterprise multiple and 6.6% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 5.0% operating margin and 18.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 18.9% // GM: 41.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.7% paired with 2.76% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.7% // FCF YLD: 2.76%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.02 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.02 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 38.0x trailing P/E (35.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 38.0x // EV/EBITDA: 19.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.6% implied move with a 0.57 put/call ratio around $111.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.6% // P/C: 0.57
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Restaurants require continuous execution to defend 3.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.9% // D/E: 1.29x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 35.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.90).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 38.0x
FORWARD P/E 35.3x
EV / EBITDA 19.2x
FCF YIELD 2.76%
GROSS MARGIN 41.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 5.0%
NET MARGIN 3.9%
ROIC % 18.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.97
DEBT / EQUITY 1.29x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.93%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 55.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.90
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CAKEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $103.51
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for CAKE & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>