ROARABLE // PRO
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AGI // Alamos Gold Inc. Class A

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001178819 ↗
Materials • Precious Metals
$28.83 ▼ -2.84 (-8.97%)
MKT CAP: $12.07B • VOL: 7.62M
AGI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // C (RQD 62) -> C- (RQD 61)
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
61 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +0% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC +0.8% • Z 3.74
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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AGI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -31.27%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $27.63H $27.75L $26.92C $27.45VOL 5.88M
RES: $35.25SUP: $21.04SMA50: $33.89SMA200: $38.14
$47.82$42.15$36.49$30.83$25.16RES $35.25SUP $21.04$27.452026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
AGI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 43/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Alamos Gold Inc. Class A (AGI) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 9.9% return on invested capital within Materials (Precious Metals), balanced against a 21.0x enterprise multiple and 7.4% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 13.9% operating margin and 9.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.9% // GM: 41.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -4.4% paired with 2.21% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -4.4% // FCF YLD: 2.21%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.74 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 32.8x trailing P/E (30.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 32.8x // EV/EBITDA: 21.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.4% implied move with a 1.22 put/call ratio around $28.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.4% // P/C: 1.22
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Precious Metals require continuous execution to defend 10.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 10.9% // D/E: 0.39x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 30.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.15).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 32.8x
FORWARD P/E 30.5x
EV / EBITDA 21.0x
FCF YIELD 2.21%
GROSS MARGIN 41.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 13.9%
NET MARGIN 10.9%
ROIC % 9.9%
REV GROWTH YOY -4.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.88
DEBT / EQUITY 0.39x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 30.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.15
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AGIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $26.38
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>