MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
Why UPBD Stock surged +18.16% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$19.98 +18.16% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.68
Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 79/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (48% profit margin, 31% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE B+ • BUY
Cap $1.16B
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Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on UPBD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is UPBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Upbound Group Inc. (NASDAQ: UPBD) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 79/100 at a spot price of $19.98 (+18.16% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UPBD ranks #41 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does UPBD compare to KPLT and PRG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), UPBD carries a Roarable B+ (79/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.0x, gross margin of 48.4%, and ROIC of 30.7%. By comparison, KPLT (Katapult Holdings Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.8%, cap $1.06B) and PRG (PROG Holdings Inc.) posts a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 37.3%, cap $1.31B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPBD?
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Per UPBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000933036), Upbound Group Inc. generated $4.70B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $73.0M in net income, and $238.7M in free cash flow against $3.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (48% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.68 (+3.51%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 5.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 79/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UPBD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (79/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UPBD SCORES 79/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.1% FCF Margin ($238.7M FCF) & 48.4% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 8 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B$15.40+6.3% Next Q
71
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B+$16.37+4.3% Next Q
74
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B+$17.08+17% Next Q
76
CurrentGrade B+$19.98+8.1% Hist 90D α
79
Trajectory: B (71) → B+ (79)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UPBD Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 79/100 (B+) score, UPBD faces multiple-compression risk if 16.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 45.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.23) or 200D SMA ($18.87) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($21.87) toward Bear Floor ($16.38).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UPBD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UPBD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why UPBD Stock surged +18.16% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) surged +18.16% to $19.98, trading at 56% of its 52-week range ($14.98 – $23.98). High-quality cash engine (48% profit margin, 31% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 56% of its 52-week range ($14.98 – $23.98) with RSI-14 at 78.4 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.1% around $19.98 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B+ (Buy) backed by 48.4% gross margin and $238.7M annual free cash flow.
Live UPBD Headlines & Catalysts
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MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
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MARKET WIRECNBC • 7h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 8h ago
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RISK WATCHReuters • 9h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 11h ago
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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (UPBD Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
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UPBD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.11%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $20.05H $20.92L $19.71C $19.98VOL 2.61M
RES: $19.94SUP: $14.44SMA50: $17.23SMA200: $18.87
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
UPBD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UPBD today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UPBD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UPBD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UPBD)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #41 of 1011
⚔️ KPLT vs UPBD Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (UPBD vs. KPLT, PRG, ARLO, CTOS)
Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) ranks #41 by composite RQD confidence (79/100, grade B+) and #495 by equity capitalization ($1.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRG leads on earnings valuation at 8.9x trailing P/E, while PRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 37.3% ROIC and — gross margin. PRG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with UPBD at 79/100 (B+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPBD
ACTIVE
Upbound Group Inc. | B+ | 79/100 | 16.0x | 48.4% | 30.7% | +18.16% | $1.16B | Benchmark Subject |
| KPLT Katapult Holdings Inc. | D | 48/100 | — | 17.7% | -0.8% | +37.58% | $1.06B | /kplt-vs-upbd → |
| PRG PROG Holdings Inc. | B+ | 80/100 | 8.9x | — | 37.3% | +8.42% | $1.31B | /prg-vs-upbd → |
| ARLO Arlo Technologies Inc. | C+ | 68/100 | 106.3x | 44.0% | 6.0% | +8.14% | $1.59B | /arlo-vs-upbd → |
| CTOS Custom Truck One Source Inc. | C- | 61/100 | — | 28.5% | 4.1% | +1.39% | $2.48B | /ctos-vs-upbd → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000933036In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) reported GAAP revenue of $4.70B (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.32B , and +17.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $73.0M, operating cash flow of $305.6M, and free cash flow of $238.7M (+392.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, UPBD closed FY2025 with $3.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.36, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $4.70B | $73.0M | $305.6M | $238.7M | $3.28B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $4.32B | $124.0M | $104.7M | $48.4M | $2.65B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $3.99B | -$5.0M | $200.3M | $200.3M | — | — |
3. UPBD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs UPBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Upbound Group Inc. (NASDAQ: UPBD) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 79/100 at a spot price of $19.98 (+18.16% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UPBD ranks #41 in composite RQD confidence.
How does UPBD compare to KPLT and PRG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), UPBD carries a Roarable B+ (79/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.0x, gross margin of 48.4%, and ROIC of 30.7%. By comparison, KPLT (Katapult Holdings Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.8%, cap $1.06B) and PRG (PROG Holdings Inc.) posts a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 37.3%, cap $1.31B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPBD?
Per UPBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000933036), Upbound Group Inc. generated $4.70B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $73.0M in net income, and $238.7M in free cash flow against $3.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (48% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is UPBD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
UPBD last traded at $19.98 (+18.16% on volume of 3,153,466 shares), positioning the stock +15.96% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.23) and +5.88% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.87). Across its 52-week range of $14.98 to $23.98, UPBD sits at the 55.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 78.4 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($18.16 to $21.80).
UPBD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is UPBD stock moving today?
Why UPBD Stock surged +18.16% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (48% profit margin, 31% return on capital) with steady institutional support.