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Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$19.98 +18.16% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 79/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (48% profit margin, 31% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $1.16B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UPBD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your UPBD Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $19.98: 500.5 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $16.38

$8,198

$-1,802 (-18.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $21.87

$10,946

+$946 (+9.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $25.81

$12,918

+$2,918 (+29.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (43 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 32● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	OUTPERFORM	$23	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	STRONG BUY	$24	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$19	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (UPBD Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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UPBD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.11%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $20.05H $20.92L $19.71C $19.98VOL 2.61M

RES: $19.94SUP: $14.44SMA50: $17.23SMA200: $18.87

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UPBD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UPBD Butterfly Map → + Track UPBD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UPBD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UPBD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UPBD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UPBD)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #41 of 1011 ⚔️ KPLT vs UPBD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (UPBD vs. KPLT, PRG, ARLO, CTOS)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) ranks #41 by composite RQD confidence (79/100, grade B+) and #495 by equity capitalization ($1.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRG leads on earnings valuation at 8.9x trailing P/E, while PRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 37.3% ROIC and — gross margin. PRG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with UPBD at 79/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
UPBD ACTIVE Upbound Group Inc.	B+	79/100	16.0x	48.4%	30.7%	+18.16%	$1.16B	Benchmark Subject
KPLT Katapult Holdings Inc.	D	48/100	—	17.7%	-0.8%	+37.58%	$1.06B	/kplt-vs-upbd →
PRG PROG Holdings Inc.	B+	80/100	8.9x	—	37.3%	+8.42%	$1.31B	/prg-vs-upbd →
ARLO Arlo Technologies Inc.	C+	68/100	106.3x	44.0%	6.0%	+8.14%	$1.59B	/arlo-vs-upbd →
CTOS Custom Truck One Source Inc.	C-	61/100	—	28.5%	4.1%	+1.39%	$2.48B	/ctos-vs-upbd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000933036

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) reported GAAP revenue of $4.70B (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.32B , and +17.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $73.0M, operating cash flow of $305.6M, and free cash flow of $238.7M (+392.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, UPBD closed FY2025 with $3.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.36, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$4.70B	$73.0M	$305.6M	$238.7M	$3.28B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$4.32B	$124.0M	$104.7M	$48.4M	$2.65B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.99B	-$5.0M	$200.3M	$200.3M	—	—

3. UPBD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UPBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Upbound Group Inc. (NASDAQ: UPBD) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 79/100 at a spot price of $19.98 (+18.16% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UPBD ranks #41 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UPBD compare to KPLT and PRG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), UPBD carries a Roarable B+ (79/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.0x, gross margin of 48.4%, and ROIC of 30.7%. By comparison, KPLT (Katapult Holdings Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.8%, cap $1.06B) and PRG (PROG Holdings Inc.) posts a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 37.3%, cap $1.31B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPBD?

Per UPBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000933036), Upbound Group Inc. generated $4.70B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $73.0M in net income, and $238.7M in free cash flow against $3.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (48% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UPBD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UPBD last traded at $19.98 (+18.16% on volume of 3,153,466 shares), positioning the stock +15.96% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.23) and +5.88% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.87). Across its 52-week range of $14.98 to $23.98, UPBD sits at the 55.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 78.4 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($18.16 to $21.80).

UPBD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is UPBD's 12-month stock price target?

Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $21.87 (+9.5% from $19.98), with a bull-case target of $25.81 and a bear-case floor of $16.38.