Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / UPBD / earnings

KPLT (48) PRG (80) ARLO (68) CTOS (61) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.1% Move

$19.98 +18.16% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.68

Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 79/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (48% profit margin, 31% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 79/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.0% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $1.16B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on UPBD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UPBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Upbound Group Inc. (NASDAQ: UPBD) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 79/100 at a spot price of $19.98 (+18.16% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UPBD ranks #41 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UPBD compare to KPLT and PRG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), UPBD carries a Roarable B+ (79/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.0x, gross margin of 48.4%, and ROIC of 30.7%. By comparison, KPLT (Katapult Holdings Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.8%, cap $1.06B) and PRG (PROG Holdings Inc.) posts a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 37.3%, cap $1.31B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPBD?

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Per UPBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000933036), Upbound Group Inc. generated $4.70B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $73.0M in net income, and $238.7M in free cash flow against $3.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (48% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.68 (+3.51%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 5.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 79/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UPBD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (79/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY UPBD SCORES 79/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.1% FCF Margin ($238.7M FCF) & 48.4% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 8 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$15.40+6.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$16.37+4.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B+$17.08+17% Next Q

Current

Grade B+$19.98+8.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (71) → B+ (79)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UPBD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 79/100 (B+) score, UPBD faces multiple-compression risk if 16.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 45.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.23) or 200D SMA ($18.87) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($21.87) toward Bear Floor ($16.38).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UPBD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “UPBD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 79%NO 21%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.1% Swing Band

±$1.82 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

UPBD Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 79/100

Trailing EPS: $1.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 8.7%

Model Bullish Setup (79/100)Model Risk Weight (21/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$4.70B	$73.0M	$238.7M	48.4%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$4.32B	$124.0M	$48.4M	48.1%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$3.99B	-$5.0M	$200.3M	48.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating UPBD & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on UPBD
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

UPBD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.11%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $20.05H $20.92L $19.71C $19.98VOL 2.61M

RES: $19.94SUP: $14.44SMA50: $17.23SMA200: $18.87

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UPBD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UPBD Butterfly Map → + Track UPBD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UPBD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UPBD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UPBD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UPBD)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #41 of 1011 ⚔️ KPLT vs UPBD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (UPBD vs. KPLT, PRG, ARLO, CTOS)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) ranks #41 by composite RQD confidence (79/100, grade B+) and #495 by equity capitalization ($1.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRG leads on earnings valuation at 8.9x trailing P/E, while PRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 37.3% ROIC and — gross margin. PRG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with UPBD at 79/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
UPBD ACTIVE Upbound Group Inc.	B+	79/100	16.0x	48.4%	30.7%	+18.16%	$1.16B	Benchmark Subject
KPLT Katapult Holdings Inc.	D	48/100	—	17.7%	-0.8%	+37.58%	$1.06B	/kplt-vs-upbd →
PRG PROG Holdings Inc.	B+	80/100	8.9x	—	37.3%	+8.42%	$1.31B	/prg-vs-upbd →
ARLO Arlo Technologies Inc.	C+	68/100	106.3x	44.0%	6.0%	+8.14%	$1.59B	/arlo-vs-upbd →
CTOS Custom Truck One Source Inc.	C-	61/100	—	28.5%	4.1%	+1.39%	$2.48B	/ctos-vs-upbd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000933036

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) reported GAAP revenue of $4.70B (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.32B , and +17.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $73.0M, operating cash flow of $305.6M, and free cash flow of $238.7M (+392.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, UPBD closed FY2025 with $3.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.36, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$4.70B	$73.0M	$305.6M	$238.7M	$3.28B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$4.32B	$124.0M	$104.7M	$48.4M	$2.65B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.99B	-$5.0M	$200.3M	$200.3M	—	—

3. UPBD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UPBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does UPBD compare to KPLT and PRG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPBD?

Where is UPBD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UPBD last traded at $19.98 (+18.16% on volume of 3,153,466 shares), positioning the stock +15.96% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.23) and +5.88% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.87). Across its 52-week range of $14.98 to $23.98, UPBD sits at the 55.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 78.4 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($18.16 to $21.80).

UPBD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is UPBD's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is UPBD stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±9.1% event move for UPBD, spanning a range between $18.16 and $21.8.

Direct Sub-Reports: UPBD RQD Cockpit UPBD 12M Forecast UPBD Earnings & Move UPBD Dividends & DRIP UPBD Insiders & 13F UPBD Whale Options UPBD Profit Sankey UPBD News & Why