Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / UPBD / insiders

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Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$19.98 +18.16% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.68

Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 79/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (48% profit margin, 31% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 79/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.0% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $1.16B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.68 (+3.51%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 5.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 79/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UPBD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (79/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY UPBD SCORES 79/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.1% FCF Margin ($238.7M FCF) & 48.4% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 8 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$15.40+6.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$16.37+4.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B+$17.08+17% Next Q

Current

Grade B+$19.98+8.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (71) → B+ (79)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UPBD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 79/100 (B+) score, UPBD faces multiple-compression risk if 16.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 45.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.23) or 200D SMA ($18.87) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($21.87) toward Bear Floor ($16.38).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UPBD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “UPBD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 79%NO 21%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

UPBD Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (UPBD)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on UPBD. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (UPBD Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

UPBD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.11%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $20.05H $20.92L $19.71C $19.98VOL 2.61M

RES: $19.94SUP: $14.44SMA50: $17.23SMA200: $18.87

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UPBD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UPBD Butterfly Map → + Track UPBD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UPBD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UPBD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UPBD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UPBD)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #41 of 1011 ⚔️ KPLT vs UPBD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (UPBD vs. KPLT, PRG, ARLO, CTOS)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) ranks #41 by composite RQD confidence (79/100, grade B+) and #495 by equity capitalization ($1.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRG leads on earnings valuation at 8.9x trailing P/E, while PRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 37.3% ROIC and — gross margin. PRG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with UPBD at 79/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
UPBD ACTIVE Upbound Group Inc.	B+	79/100	16.0x	48.4%	30.7%	+18.16%	$1.16B	Benchmark Subject
KPLT Katapult Holdings Inc.	D	48/100	—	17.7%	-0.8%	+37.58%	$1.06B	/kplt-vs-upbd →
PRG PROG Holdings Inc.	B+	80/100	8.9x	—	37.3%	+8.42%	$1.31B	/prg-vs-upbd →
ARLO Arlo Technologies Inc.	C+	68/100	106.3x	44.0%	6.0%	+8.14%	$1.59B	/arlo-vs-upbd →
CTOS Custom Truck One Source Inc.	C-	61/100	—	28.5%	4.1%	+1.39%	$2.48B	/ctos-vs-upbd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000933036

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) reported GAAP revenue of $4.70B (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.32B , and +17.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $73.0M, operating cash flow of $305.6M, and free cash flow of $238.7M (+392.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, UPBD closed FY2025 with $3.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.36, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$4.70B	$73.0M	$305.6M	$238.7M	$3.28B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$4.32B	$124.0M	$104.7M	$48.4M	$2.65B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.99B	-$5.0M	$200.3M	$200.3M	—	—

3. UPBD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UPBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Upbound Group Inc. (NASDAQ: UPBD) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 79/100 at a spot price of $19.98 (+18.16% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UPBD ranks #41 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UPBD compare to KPLT and PRG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), UPBD carries a Roarable B+ (79/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.0x, gross margin of 48.4%, and ROIC of 30.7%. By comparison, KPLT (Katapult Holdings Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.8%, cap $1.06B) and PRG (PROG Holdings Inc.) posts a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 37.3%, cap $1.31B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPBD?

Per UPBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000933036), Upbound Group Inc. generated $4.70B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $73.0M in net income, and $238.7M in free cash flow against $3.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (48% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UPBD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UPBD last traded at $19.98 (+18.16% on volume of 3,153,466 shares), positioning the stock +15.96% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.23) and +5.88% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.87). Across its 52-week range of $14.98 to $23.98, UPBD sits at the 55.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 78.4 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($18.16 to $21.80).

UPBD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are UPBD insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies UPBD leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

Direct Sub-Reports: UPBD RQD Cockpit UPBD 12M Forecast UPBD Earnings & Move UPBD Dividends & DRIP UPBD Insiders & 13F UPBD Whale Options UPBD Profit Sankey UPBD News & Why