MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Nine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say - ReutersNine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say Reuters
Why REFI Stock slipped -0.88% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$8.96 -0.88% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.93
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $229.6M
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER
Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on REFI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is REFI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼
As of 2026-11-01, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (NASDAQ: REFI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $8.96 (-0.88% 1D, market cap $229.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, REFI ranks #654 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does REFI compare to NXDT and AIV in the Financials sector?
▼
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), REFI carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, NXDT (NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.2%, cap $228.9M) and AIV (Apartment Investment and Management Company) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $238.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, REFI leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while AIV leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REFI?
▼
Per REFI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001867949), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $36.0M in net income, and $28.8M in free cash flow against $424.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.93 (-0.35%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 0.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for REFI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY REFI SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.7% FCF Margin ($28.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C+$9.42-1.2% Next Q
65
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$9.31+0.6% Next Q
62
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$9.37-4.4% Next Q
60
CurrentGrade D+$8.96-0.2% Hist 90D α
57
Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the REFI Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, REFI faces multiple-compression risk if 6.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.15) or 200D SMA ($11.12) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($8.92) toward Bear Floor ($6.96).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $REFI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “REFI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why REFI Stock slipped -0.88% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) slipped -0.88% to $8.96, trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($8.76 – $13.49). Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (12% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($8.76 – $13.49) with RSI-14 at 31.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.5% around $8.96 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $28.8M annual free cash flow.
Live REFI Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 4h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
MARKET WIRECNBC • 6h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 6h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 8h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 10h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 10h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring REFI)
- ✓Walkthrough of REFI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
REFI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.77%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $8.99H $9.04L $8.78C $8.96VOL 111.6K
RES: $11.22SUP: $8.61SMA50: $10.15SMA200: $11.12
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
REFI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-9.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on REFI today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for REFI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for REFI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (REFI)
Financials Rank #654 of 1096
⚔️ NXDT vs REFI Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (REFI vs. NXDT, AIV, BRT, SITC)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) ranks #654 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #862 by equity capitalization ($229.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, REFI leads on earnings valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, while AIV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SITC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with REFI at 57/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REFI
ACTIVE
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. | D+ | 57/100 | 6.4x | — | 11.7% | -0.88% | $229.6M | Benchmark Subject |
| NXDT NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust | D- | 36/100 | — | — | -0.2% | -17.75% | $228.9M | /nxdt-vs-refi → |
| AIV Apartment Investment and Management Company | D+ | 57/100 | — | — | 85.0% | +1.86% | $238.2M | /aiv-vs-refi → |
| BRT BRT Apartments Corp. (MD) | D | 49/100 | — | — | -6.5% | +2.31% | $249.6M | /brt-vs-refi → |
| SITC SITE Centers Corp. | C+ | 67/100 | — | — | 53.1% | +0.79% | $200.5M | /sitc-vs-refi → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001867949In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $36.0M, operating cash flow of $28.8M, and free cash flow of $28.8M (+24.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, REFI closed FY2025 with $424.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $36.0M | $28.8M | $28.8M | $424.9M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $37.0M | $23.2M | $23.2M | $435.1M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $38.7M | $28.4M | $28.4M | — | — |
3. REFI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs REFI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (NASDAQ: REFI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $8.96 (-0.88% 1D, market cap $229.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, REFI ranks #654 in composite RQD confidence.
How does REFI compare to NXDT and AIV in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), REFI carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, NXDT (NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.2%, cap $228.9M) and AIV (Apartment Investment and Management Company) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $238.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, REFI leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while AIV leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REFI?
Per REFI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001867949), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $36.0M in net income, and $28.8M in free cash flow against $424.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is REFI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
REFI last traded at $8.96 (-0.88% on volume of 144,180 shares), positioning the stock -11.72% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.15) and -19.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.12). Across its 52-week range of $8.76 to $13.49, REFI sits at the 4.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($8.38 to $9.54).
REFI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is REFI stock moving today?
Why REFI Stock slipped -0.88% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (12% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.