Stock Ratings / Financials / REFI / earnings

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Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.5% Move

Q: When is REFI's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

Q: How much is REFI stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.5% event move for REFI, spanning a range between $8.38 and $9.54.

$8.96 -0.88% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.93

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $229.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.93 (-0.35%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 0.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for REFI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY REFI SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.7% FCF Margin ($28.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$9.42-1.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$9.31+0.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$9.37-4.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$8.96-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the REFI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, REFI faces multiple-compression risk if 6.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.15) or 200D SMA ($11.12) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($8.92) toward Bear Floor ($6.96).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $REFI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “REFI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.5% Swing Band

±$0.58 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

REFI Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 57/100

Trailing EPS: $1.41 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (57/100)Model Risk Weight (43/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$36.0M	$28.8M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$37.0M	$23.2M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$38.7M	$28.4M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring REFI)

✓Walkthrough of REFI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

REFI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.77%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $8.99H $9.04L $8.78C $8.96VOL 111.6K

RES: $11.22SUP: $8.61SMA50: $10.15SMA200: $11.12

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

REFI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 REFI Butterfly Map → + Track REFI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-9.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on REFI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for REFI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for REFI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (REFI)

Financials Rank #654 of 1096 ⚔️ NXDT vs REFI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (REFI vs. NXDT, AIV, BRT, SITC)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) ranks #654 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #862 by equity capitalization ($229.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, REFI leads on earnings valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, while AIV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SITC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with REFI at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
REFI ACTIVE Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc.	D+	57/100	6.4x	—	11.7%	-0.88%	$229.6M	Benchmark Subject
NXDT NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust	D-	36/100	—	—	-0.2%	-17.75%	$228.9M	/nxdt-vs-refi →
AIV Apartment Investment and Management Company	D+	57/100	—	—	85.0%	+1.86%	$238.2M	/aiv-vs-refi →
BRT BRT Apartments Corp. (MD)	D	49/100	—	—	-6.5%	+2.31%	$249.6M	/brt-vs-refi →
SITC SITE Centers Corp.	C+	67/100	—	—	53.1%	+0.79%	$200.5M	/sitc-vs-refi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001867949

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $36.0M, operating cash flow of $28.8M, and free cash flow of $28.8M (+24.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, REFI closed FY2025 with $424.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$36.0M	$28.8M	$28.8M	$424.9M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$37.0M	$23.2M	$23.2M	$435.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$38.7M	$28.4M	$28.4M	—	—

3. REFI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is REFI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (NASDAQ: REFI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $8.96 (-0.88% 1D, market cap $229.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, REFI ranks #654 in composite RQD confidence.

How does REFI compare to NXDT and AIV in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), REFI carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, NXDT (NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.2%, cap $228.9M) and AIV (Apartment Investment and Management Company) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $238.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, REFI leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while AIV leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REFI?

Per REFI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001867949), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $36.0M in net income, and $28.8M in free cash flow against $424.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is REFI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

REFI last traded at $8.96 (-0.88% on volume of 144,180 shares), positioning the stock -11.72% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.15) and -19.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.12). Across its 52-week range of $8.76 to $13.49, REFI sits at the 4.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($8.38 to $9.54).

REFI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is REFI's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is REFI stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.5% event move for REFI, spanning a range between $8.38 and $9.54.

Direct Sub-Reports: REFI RQD Cockpit REFI 12M Forecast REFI Earnings & Move REFI Dividends & DRIP REFI Insiders & 13F REFI Whale Options REFI Profit Sankey REFI News & Why