Stock Ratings / Financials / REFI / dividends

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Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$8.84 -1.34% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.80

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $229.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on REFI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is REFI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (NASDAQ: REFI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $8.84 (-1.34% 1D, market cap $229.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, REFI ranks #724 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does REFI compare to NXDT and AIV in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), REFI carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, NXDT (NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.2%, cap $228.9M) and AIV (Apartment Investment and Management Company) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $238.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, REFI leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while AIV leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REFI?

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Per REFI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001867949), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $36.0M in net income, and $28.8M in free cash flow against $424.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.80 (-0.43%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 0.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for REFI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY REFI SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.7% FCF Margin ($28.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$9.35-6.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$8.77+6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$9.30-4.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D$8.84-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a REFI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While REFI currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.11) and Max Pain ($9.28) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $14.16.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $REFI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “REFI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

1.8% Total Yield

0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

0% (100% Reinvested)

Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (6.8% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $19,307

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $348/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$10.7K

Yr 1

$11.4K

Yr 2

$12.2K

Yr 3

$13.0K

Yr 4

$13.9K

Yr 5

$14.8K

Yr 6

$15.8K

Yr 7

$16.9K

Yr 8

$18.1K

Yr 9

$19.3K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring REFI)

✓Walkthrough of REFI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

REFI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -26.09%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $9.04H $9.04L $8.84C $8.84VOL 144.2K

RES: $11.22SUP: $8.59SMA50: $10.11SMA200: $11.11

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

REFI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 REFI Butterfly Map → + Track REFI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-9.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on REFI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for REFI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for REFI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (REFI)

Financials Rank #724 of 1096 ⚔️ NXDT vs REFI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (REFI vs. NXDT, AIV, BRT, SITC)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) ranks #724 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #862 by equity capitalization ($229.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, REFI leads on earnings valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, while AIV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SITC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with REFI at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
REFI ACTIVE Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc.	D	48/100	6.4x	—	11.7%	-1.34%	$229.6M	Benchmark Subject
NXDT NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust	D-	36/100	—	—	-0.2%	-8.12%	$228.9M	/nxdt-vs-refi →
AIV Apartment Investment and Management Company	D	48/100	—	—	85.0%	-4.27%	$238.2M	/aiv-vs-refi →
BRT BRT Apartments Corp. (MD)	D-	37/100	—	—	-6.5%	-2.26%	$249.6M	/brt-vs-refi →
SITC SITE Centers Corp.	C-	59/100	—	—	53.1%	-2.36%	$200.5M	/sitc-vs-refi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001867949

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $36.0M, operating cash flow of $28.8M, and free cash flow of $28.8M (+24.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, REFI closed FY2025 with $424.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$36.0M	$28.8M	$28.8M	$424.9M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$37.0M	$23.2M	$23.2M	$435.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$38.7M	$28.4M	$28.4M	—	—

3. REFI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is REFI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does REFI compare to NXDT and AIV in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REFI?

Where is REFI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

REFI last traded at $8.84 (-1.34% on volume of 111,641 shares), positioning the stock -12.56% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.11) and -20.43% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.11). Across its 52-week range of $8.76 to $13.49, REFI sits at the 1.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.1% ($8.30 to $9.38).

REFI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does REFI pay a dividend and is it safe?

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 1.8% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

Direct Sub-Reports: REFI RQD Cockpit REFI 12M Forecast REFI Earnings & Move REFI Dividends & DRIP REFI Insiders & 13F REFI Whale Options REFI Profit Sankey REFI News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

REFI — Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: Haiku 5.5 Dossier Pipeline

As of: 2026-11-02T14:21Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD 5-pillar rating engine, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) carries a composite score of 48/100 (D — Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) at a current price of $8.84 (-1.34%). Fundamental cash generation scores 13/20 (ROIC 11.7%, FCF yield 12.54%), institutional 13F whale accumulation scores 3/20, insider conviction scores 14/20, macro regime alignment scores 8/20 (Beta 1.00), and forensic balance-sheet protection scores 10/20 (Altman Z-Score N/A, Piotroski F-Score 3/9).

Investor Implication: At 6.4x trailing P/E and 6.0x forward P/E within Real Estate Investment Trusts, upside depends on sustained operating margin expansion (—) and free cash flow conversion relative to the 52-week range of $8.76 – $13.49.

Butterfly Effect: Supply-Chain, Sector & Catalyst Ripples

Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), REFI is sensitive to 2nd-order capital expenditure cycles, input cost spreads (gross margin —), and institutional positioning across its peer cohort. Prospective investors should monitor quarterly order backlog conversion, sector capex guidance, and Form 4 insider cluster activity (0 recent filings tracked).

Open Questions to Watch: (1) Margin trajectory vs. peer median; (2) FCF conversion sustainability over the next 4 quarters; (3) Institutional 13F rebalancing around upcoming earnings.

REFI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to REFI Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE SeekingAlpha • 12d ago

18 Ideal 'Safer' DiviDog Buys Readers Tagged In September

Top ten ReFa/Ro Dogs for September 2026 offer projected net gains of 40.66% to 122.87% by September 2027, per broker estimates. Check out the list here.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 13d ago

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Schedules Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call Date

CHICAGO, Oct. 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NASDAQ: REFI) ("Chicago Atlantic" or the “Company”), a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust, announced details for the re

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 16d ago

High-Yield REITs vs. 10-Year Treasuries: Which Is the Better Buy?

With attractive yields and shifting interest-rate expectations, are high-yield REITs or 10-year Treasuries the better investment for income and long-term appreciation?

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST SeekingAlpha • 19d ago

Buy 7 October Dividend Power Dogs If You Dare

Discover Octoberâs top high-yield Dividend Power stocks like IVR and MFA, with safer dividends and analysts projecting 86% gains by 2027âread now.

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🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 47d ago

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Declares Common Stock Dividend of $0.47 for the Third Quarter of 2026

CHICAGO, Sept. 16, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NASDAQ: REFI), a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust, announced that its board of directors has declared a regular quar

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 75d ago

Chicago Atlantic (REFI) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

REIT reports $0.44 distributable earnings amid capital redeployment.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 82d ago

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic ...

REFI navigates a transformative quarter with a $649 million pipeline and a value-unlocking merger, despite a slight earnings miss due to capital redeployment timing.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 82d ago

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

Yahoo Finance coverage on REFI stock catalysts, institutional flow, and earnings outlook.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

REFI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $8.84?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON REFI 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $9.68 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is REFI (D • RQD 48/100) a Buy at $8.96?

Welcome to the REFI (Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 48/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Real Estate Investment Trusts. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.99 (-22.0%)

Spot @ $8.96

Pump the brakes on REFI — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on REFI, but look at what you are paying: 6.4x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $10.75 (+20.0%)

Spot @ $8.96

REFI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on REFI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Real Estate Investment Trusts and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $8.96 (52-wk range $8.76 - $13.49), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.