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Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

Q: Are REFI insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies REFI leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

$8.96 -0.88% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.93

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $229.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.93 (-0.35%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 0.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for REFI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY REFI SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.7% FCF Margin ($28.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$9.42-1.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$9.31+0.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$9.37-4.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$8.96-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the REFI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, REFI faces multiple-compression risk if 6.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.15) or 200D SMA ($11.12) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($8.92) toward Bear Floor ($6.96).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $REFI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “REFI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

REFI Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (REFI)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on REFI. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring REFI)

✓Walkthrough of REFI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

REFI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.77%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $8.99H $9.04L $8.78C $8.96VOL 111.6K

RES: $11.22SUP: $8.61SMA50: $10.15SMA200: $11.12

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

REFI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 REFI Butterfly Map → + Track REFI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-9.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on REFI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for REFI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for REFI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (REFI)

Financials Rank #654 of 1096 ⚔️ NXDT vs REFI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (REFI vs. NXDT, AIV, BRT, SITC)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) ranks #654 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #862 by equity capitalization ($229.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, REFI leads on earnings valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, while AIV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SITC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with REFI at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
REFI ACTIVE Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc.	D+	57/100	6.4x	—	11.7%	-0.88%	$229.6M	Benchmark Subject
NXDT NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust	D-	36/100	—	—	-0.2%	-17.75%	$228.9M	/nxdt-vs-refi →
AIV Apartment Investment and Management Company	D+	57/100	—	—	85.0%	+1.86%	$238.2M	/aiv-vs-refi →
BRT BRT Apartments Corp. (MD)	D	49/100	—	—	-6.5%	+2.31%	$249.6M	/brt-vs-refi →
SITC SITE Centers Corp.	C+	67/100	—	—	53.1%	+0.79%	$200.5M	/sitc-vs-refi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001867949

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $36.0M, operating cash flow of $28.8M, and free cash flow of $28.8M (+24.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, REFI closed FY2025 with $424.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$36.0M	$28.8M	$28.8M	$424.9M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$37.0M	$23.2M	$23.2M	$435.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$38.7M	$28.4M	$28.4M	—	—

3. REFI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is REFI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (NASDAQ: REFI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $8.96 (-0.88% 1D, market cap $229.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, REFI ranks #654 in composite RQD confidence.

How does REFI compare to NXDT and AIV in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), REFI carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, NXDT (NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.2%, cap $228.9M) and AIV (Apartment Investment and Management Company) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $238.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, REFI leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while AIV leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REFI?

Per REFI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001867949), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $36.0M in net income, and $28.8M in free cash flow against $424.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is REFI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

REFI last traded at $8.96 (-0.88% on volume of 144,180 shares), positioning the stock -11.72% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.15) and -19.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.12). Across its 52-week range of $8.76 to $13.49, REFI sits at the 4.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($8.38 to $9.54).

REFI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are REFI insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies REFI leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

Direct Sub-Reports: REFI RQD Cockpit REFI 12M Forecast REFI Earnings & Move REFI Dividends & DRIP REFI Insiders & 13F REFI Whale Options REFI Profit Sankey REFI News & Why