EE (74) OGS (50) SR (43) NJR (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$49.96 +0.99% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $49.95

Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.10B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $49.96 (-0.01%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NWN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NWN SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (19% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (60.5) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$47.73+2.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$48.99+1.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$49.87+0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$49.96-6.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (35) → D- (43)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NWN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NWN currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($48.64) and Max Pain ($52.46) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $58.79.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NWN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NWN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±3.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (NWN)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for NWN.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NWN)

✓Walkthrough of NWN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NWN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.74%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $50.05H $50.15L $49.49C $49.96VOL 255.2K

RES: $54.45SUP: $44.50SMA50: $48.64SMA200: $50.13

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NWN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NWN Butterfly Map → + Track NWN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NWN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NWN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NWN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NWN)

Energy Rank #177 of 211 ⚔️ EE vs NWN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (NWN vs. EE, OGS, SR, NJR)

Industry: Oil/Gas Transmission (13 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) ranks #177 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #117 by equity capitalization ($2.10B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NJR leads on earnings valuation at 16.1x trailing P/E, while NJR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.3% ROIC and — gross margin. EE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with NWN at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NWN ACTIVE Northwest Natural Holding Company	D-	43/100	18.6x	—	6.0%	+0.99%	$2.10B	Benchmark Subject
EE Excelerate Energy Inc. (Class A)	B	74/100	23.8x	—	8.1%	+3.21%	$3.98B	/ee-vs-nwn →
OGS ONE Gas Inc.	D	50/100	18.6x	—	6.2%	+0.83%	$4.91B	/ogs-vs-nwn →
SR Spire Inc.	D-	43/100	18.9x	58.8%	5.3%	+1.43%	$5.13B	/sr-vs-nwn →
NJR NewJersey Resources Corporation	B-	70/100	16.1x	—	16.3%	+0.64%	$5.39B	/njr-vs-nwn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001733998

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) reported GAAP revenue of $1.29B (+11.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.15B , and +7.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $113.3M, operating cash flow of $269.1M, and free cash flow of -$197.8M (-1.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, NWN closed FY2025 with $6.17B in total assets against $2.27B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.29B	$113.3M	$269.1M	-$197.8M	$6.17B	$2.27B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.15B	$78.9M	$200.3M	-$194.1M	$5.23B	$1.68B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.20B	$93.9M	$279.9M	$279.9M	—	—

3. NWN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NWN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Northwest Natural Holding Company (NYSE: NWN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $49.96 (+0.99% 1D, market cap $2.10B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, NWN ranks #177 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NWN compare to EE and OGS in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), NWN carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.0%. By comparison, EE (Excelerate Energy Inc. (Class A)) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 23.8x, ROIC 8.1%, cap $3.98B) and OGS (ONE Gas Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 6.2%, cap $4.91B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NJR leads on earnings multiple (16.1x) while NJR leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NWN?

Per NWN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001733998), Northwest Natural Holding Company generated $1.29B in revenue (+11.8% YoY), $113.3M in net income, and -$197.8M in free cash flow against $6.17B in total assets and $2.27B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NWN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NWN last traded at $49.96 (+0.99% on volume of 327,204 shares), positioning the stock +2.71% above its 50-day simple moving average ($48.64) and -0.34% below its 200-day simple moving average ($50.13). Across its 52-week range of $44.45 to $55.99, NWN sits at the 47.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.5% ($48.21 to $51.71).

NWN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is NWN's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for NWN.

Direct Sub-Reports: NWN RQD Cockpit NWN 12M Forecast NWN Earnings & Move NWN Dividends & DRIP NWN Insiders & 13F NWN Whale Options NWN Profit Sankey NWN News & Why