NFG (58) NJR (70) SR (43) OGS (50) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: What is UGP's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

UGP's 12-month base price target is $5.76 (range $4.49 to $8.69), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

$5.97 -2.45% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.93

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $6.64B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.93 (-0.63%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 4.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UGP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY UGP SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 4.7% FCF Margin ($186.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$7.90-1.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$7.80-0.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$7.74-22.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D$5.97-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a UGP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While UGP currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.28) and Max Pain ($6.27) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.69.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UGP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “UGP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)

21.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE51% OF RANGE

L: $4$5.97H: $8

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on UGP

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

14.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (42)

15/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like UGP

✓Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring UGP)

✓Walkthrough of UGP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

UGP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.33%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN

2026-10-30O $5.82H $5.97L $5.78C $5.97VOL 3.78M

RES: $8.99SUP: $7.59SMA50: $7.28SMA200: $5.93

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UGP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UGP Butterfly Map → + Track UGP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UGP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UGP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UGP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UGP)

Energy Rank #144 of 211 ⚔️ NFG vs UGP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (UGP vs. NFG, NJR, SR, OGS)

Industry: Oil/Gas Transmission (13 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) ranks #144 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #74 by equity capitalization ($6.64B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NFG leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while NJR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.3% ROIC and — gross margin. NJR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with UGP at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
UGP ACTIVE Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share)	D	50/100	—	—	—	-2.45%	$6.64B	Benchmark Subject
NFG National Fuel Gas Company	D+	58/100	14.5x	90.4%	9.7%	-1.06%	$7.54B	/nfg-vs-ugp →
NJR NewJersey Resources Corporation	B-	70/100	16.1x	—	16.3%	+0.64%	$5.39B	/njr-vs-ugp →
SR Spire Inc.	D-	43/100	18.9x	58.8%	5.3%	+1.43%	$5.13B	/sr-vs-ugp →
OGS ONE Gas Inc.	D	50/100	18.6x	—	6.2%	+0.83%	$4.91B	/ogs-vs-ugp →

2. UGP Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) operates in Oil/Gas Transmission (Energy) with an equity capitalization of $6.64B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. UGP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UGP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (NYSE: UGP) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $5.97 (-2.45% 1D, market cap $6.64B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, UGP ranks #144 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UGP compare to NFG and NJR in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), UGP carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, NFG (National Fuel Gas Company) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $7.54B) and NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 16.3%, cap $5.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NFG leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while NJR leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UGP?

For Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #144 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UGP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UGP last traded at $5.97 (-2.45% on volume of 4,310,918 shares), positioning the stock -17.99% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.28) and +0.67% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.93). Across its 52-week range of $3.60 to $8.28, UGP sits at the 50.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 21.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($5.51 to $6.43).

UGP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell UGP stock right now?

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 50/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is UGP's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

UGP's 12-month base price target is $5.76 (range $4.49 to $8.69), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: UGP RQD Cockpit UGP 12M Forecast UGP Earnings & Move UGP Dividends & DRIP UGP Insiders & 13F UGP Whale Options UGP Profit Sankey UGP News & Why