NFG (58) NJR (71) SR (43) OGS (49) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

Q: Where is UGP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UGP last traded at $5.97 (-2.45% on volume of 4,310,918 shares), positioning the stock -17.88% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.27) and +0.51% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.94). Across its 52-week range of $3.60 to $8.28, UGP sits at the 50.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 26.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($5.54 to $6.40).

Q: What is UGP's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for UGP.

$5.97 -2.45% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.93

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $6.64B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on UGP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UGP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (NYSE: UGP) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $5.97 (-2.45% 1D, market cap $6.64B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, UGP ranks #122 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UGP compare to NFG and NJR in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), UGP carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, NFG (National Fuel Gas Company) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $7.54B) and NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 16.3%, cap $5.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NFG leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while NJR leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UGP?

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For Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #122 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.93 (-0.63%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 4.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UGP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY UGP SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 51% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 26.1 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$7.89-1.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$7.77-15.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$6.56-9% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$5.97-0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a UGP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While UGP currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.27) and Max Pain ($6.27) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.69.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UGP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “UGP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±7.2%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (UGP)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for UGP.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring UGP)

✓Walkthrough of UGP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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UGP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.17%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN

2026-11-02O $6.12H $6.12L $5.97C $5.97VOL 4.31M

RES: $9.03SUP: $7.62SMA50: $7.27SMA200: $5.94

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UGP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UGP Butterfly Map → + Track UGP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UGP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UGP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UGP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UGP)

Energy Rank #122 of 211 ⚔️ NFG vs UGP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (UGP vs. NFG, NJR, SR, OGS)

Industry: Oil/Gas Transmission (13 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) ranks #122 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #74 by equity capitalization ($6.64B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NFG leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while NJR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.3% ROIC and — gross margin. NJR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with UGP at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
UGP ACTIVE Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share)	D+	53/100	—	—	—	-2.45%	$6.64B	Benchmark Subject
NFG National Fuel Gas Company	D+	58/100	14.5x	90.4%	9.7%	-1.06%	$7.54B	/nfg-vs-ugp →
NJR NewJersey Resources Corporation	B-	71/100	16.1x	—	16.3%	+0.64%	$5.39B	/njr-vs-ugp →
SR Spire Inc.	D-	43/100	18.9x	58.8%	5.3%	+1.43%	$5.13B	/sr-vs-ugp →
OGS ONE Gas Inc.	D	49/100	18.6x	—	6.2%	+0.83%	$4.91B	/ogs-vs-ugp →

2. UGP Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) operates in Oil/Gas Transmission (Energy) with an equity capitalization of $6.64B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. UGP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UGP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does UGP compare to NFG and NJR in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UGP?

Where is UGP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UGP last traded at $5.97 (-2.45% on volume of 4,310,918 shares), positioning the stock -17.88% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.27) and +0.51% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.94). Across its 52-week range of $3.60 to $8.28, UGP sits at the 50.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 26.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($5.54 to $6.40).

UGP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is UGP's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for UGP.

Direct Sub-Reports: UGP RQD Cockpit UGP 12M Forecast UGP Earnings & Move UGP Dividends & DRIP UGP Insiders & 13F UGP Whale Options UGP Profit Sankey UGP News & Why