MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
UGP or ENB: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?UGP vs. ENB: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
Why UGP Stock dropped -2.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$5.97 -2.45% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.93
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $6.64B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.93 (-0.63%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 4.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UGP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UGP SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (24% of score)
SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 4.7% FCF Margin ($186.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$7.90-1.3% Next Q
58
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$7.80-0.8% Next Q
55
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$7.74-22.9% Next Q
53
CurrentGrade D$5.97-1.4% Hist 90D α
50
Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a UGP Turnaround Squeeze
While UGP currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.28) and Max Pain ($6.27) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.69.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UGP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UGP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why UGP Stock dropped -2.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) dropped -2.45% to $5.97, trading at 51% of its 52-week range ($3.6 – $8.28). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 51% of its 52-week range ($3.6 – $8.28) with RSI-14 at 21.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.7% around $5.97 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $186.0M annual free cash flow.
Live UGP Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 2d ago
Should Value Investors Buy Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Stock?Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Loses 12.8% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why a Trend Reversal May be Around the CornerThe heavy selling pressure might have exhausted for Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) as it is technically in oversold territory now. In addition to this technical measure, strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revis
CATALYSTYahoo • 5d ago
Down 8.0% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Looks Ripe for a TurnaroundUltrapar Participacoes (UGP) has become technically an oversold stock now, which implies exhaustion of the heavy selling pressure on it. This, combined with strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revising earning
MARKET WIREFintel • 6d ago
Ultrapar Participações S.A. Announces Sale of 7,599,879 Shares by PátriaCATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 8d ago
Our Top 10 High Growth Dividend Stocks - October 2026Discover a proven method to pick high-growth dividend stocks using dividend growth, sustainability, and momentumâsee the top 10 names to buy now.
CATALYSTYahoo • 9d ago
3 Reasons Why Growth Investors Shouldn't Overlook Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP)Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) could produce exceptional returns because of its solid growth attributes.
CATALYSTYahoo • 9d ago
Best Growth Stocks to Buy for October 23rdUGP, WOOF and MNDY made it to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) growth stocks list on October 23, 2026
CATALYSTYahoo • 9d ago
Zacks.com featured highlights include Ultrapar Participacoes, Chatham Lodging, Arcos Dorados, Occidental and Kohl'sUGP, CLDT, ARCO, OXY and KSS offer attractive EV to EBITDA ratios, with projected 2026 earnings growth ranging from 29.6% to 207.7%.
CATALYSTYahoo • 10d ago
5 Value Stocks With Attractive EV-to-EBITDA Ratios to Scoop UpUGP, CLDT, ARCO, OXY and KSS stand out with attractive EV-to-EBITDA ratios and strong earnings outlook.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring UGP)
- ✓Walkthrough of UGP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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UGP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.33%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-10-30O $5.82H $5.97L $5.78C $5.97VOL 3.78M
RES: $8.99SUP: $7.59SMA50: $7.28SMA200: $5.93
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
UGP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UGP today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UGP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UGP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UGP)
Energy Rank #144 of 211
⚔️ NFG vs UGP Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (UGP vs. NFG, NJR, SR, OGS)
Industry: Oil/Gas Transmission (13 Tracked Issuers)Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) ranks #144 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #74 by equity capitalization ($6.64B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NFG leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while NJR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.3% ROIC and — gross margin. NJR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with UGP at 50/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGP
ACTIVE
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | -2.45% | $6.64B | Benchmark Subject |
| NFG National Fuel Gas Company | D+ | 58/100 | 14.5x | 90.4% | 9.7% | -1.06% | $7.54B | /nfg-vs-ugp → |
| NJR NewJersey Resources Corporation | B- | 70/100 | 16.1x | — | 16.3% | +0.64% | $5.39B | /njr-vs-ugp → |
| SR Spire Inc. | D- | 43/100 | 18.9x | 58.8% | 5.3% | +1.43% | $5.13B | /sr-vs-ugp → |
| OGS ONE Gas Inc. | D | 50/100 | 18.6x | — | 6.2% | +0.83% | $4.91B | /ogs-vs-ugp → |
2. UGP Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics
TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOTUltrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) operates in Oil/Gas Transmission (Energy) with an equity capitalization of $6.64B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.
3. UGP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs UGP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (NYSE: UGP) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $5.97 (-2.45% 1D, market cap $6.64B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, UGP ranks #144 in composite RQD confidence.
How does UGP compare to NFG and NJR in the Energy sector?
Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), UGP carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, NFG (National Fuel Gas Company) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $7.54B) and NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 16.3%, cap $5.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NFG leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while NJR leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UGP?
For Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #144 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is UGP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
UGP last traded at $5.97 (-2.45% on volume of 4,310,918 shares), positioning the stock -17.99% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.28) and +0.67% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.93). Across its 52-week range of $3.60 to $8.28, UGP sits at the 50.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 21.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($5.51 to $6.43).
UGP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is UGP stock moving today?
Why UGP Stock dropped -2.45% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.