MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why TWI Stock dropped -25.83% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$4.91 -25.83% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.67
Titan International Inc. (TWI) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 22/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT
Cap $316.9M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.67 (-4.84%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (22/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TWI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (22/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TWI SCORES 22/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+6/20 pts (27% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 13.9% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+6/20 pts (27% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 4% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 16.9 (OVERSOLD (<32))
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$6.95-4.5% Next Q
30
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$6.64+1.8% Next Q
27
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$6.76-27.4% Next Q
25
CurrentGrade E$4.91-11.4% Hist 90D α
22
Trajectory: E (30) → E (22)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TWI Turnaround Squeeze
While TWI currently carries a cautious 22/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.97) and Max Pain ($5.16) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.29.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TWI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TWI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TWI Stock dropped -25.83% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Titan International Inc. (TWI) dropped -25.83% to $4.91, trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($4.61 – $11.7). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($4.61 – $11.7) with RSI-14 at 16.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.4% around $4.91 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 13.9% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live TWI Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TWI)
- ✓Walkthrough of TWI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TWI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -35.56%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-10-30O $4.79H $4.99L $4.61C $4.91VOL 1.94M
RES: $8.35SUP: $5.22SMA50: $6.97SMA200: $7.82
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TWI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -0.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TWI today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TWI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TWI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TWI)
Materials Rank #269 of 270
⚔️ FRD vs TWI Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (TWI vs. FRD, ASTL, IIIN, MTUS)
Industry: Steel/Iron Ore (26 Tracked Issuers)Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Titan International Inc. (TWI) ranks #269 by composite RQD confidence (22/100, grade E) and #199 by equity capitalization ($316.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IIIN leads on earnings valuation at 13.7x trailing P/E, while FRD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.7% ROIC and — gross margin. IIIN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with TWI at 22/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWI
ACTIVE
Titan International Inc. | E | 22/100 | — | 13.9% | 5.3% | -25.83% | $316.9M | Benchmark Subject |
| FRD Friedman Industries Inc. | C | 62/100 | 15.9x | — | 13.7% | +0.82% | $311.4M | /frd-vs-twi → |
| ASTL Algoma Steel Group Inc. | C- | 61/100 | — | — | — | +1.01% | $527.3M | /astl-vs-twi → |
| IIIN Insteel Industries Inc. | C | 64/100 | 13.7x | 14.4% | 11.4% | +2.59% | $560.6M | /iiin-vs-twi → |
| MTUS Metallus Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | 8.2% | -0.2% | +1.18% | $887.8M | /mtus-vs-twi → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000899751In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Titan International Inc. (TWI) reported GAAP revenue of $1.83B (-0.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.85B , and +0.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$61.2M, operating cash flow of $30.0M, and free cash flow of -$24.6M (-132.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TWI closed FY2025 with $1.67B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.78, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.83B | -$61.2M | $30.0M | -$24.6M | $1.67B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.85B | -$3.6M | $141.5M | $75.9M | $1.58B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.82B | $83.7M | $179.3M | $179.3M | — | — |
3. TWI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TWI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Titan International Inc. (NYSE: TWI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 22/100 at a spot price of $4.91 (-25.83% 1D, market cap $316.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 4/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, TWI ranks #269 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TWI compare to FRD and ASTL in the Materials sector?
Within the Materials sector (Steel/Iron Ore), TWI carries a Roarable E (22/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 13.9%, and ROIC of 5.3%. By comparison, FRD (Friedman Industries Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 15.9x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $311.4M) and ASTL (Algoma Steel Group Inc.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $527.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IIIN leads on earnings multiple (13.7x) while FRD leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TWI?
Per TWI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000899751), Titan International Inc. generated $1.83B in revenue (-0.9% YoY), -$61.2M in net income, and -$24.6M in free cash flow against $1.67B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TWI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TWI last traded at $4.91 (-25.83% on volume of 3,252,948 shares), positioning the stock -29.56% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.97) and -37.21% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.82). Across its 52-week range of $4.61 to $11.70, TWI sits at the 4.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 16.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.4% ($4.40 to $5.42).
TWI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TWI stock moving today?
Why TWI Stock dropped -25.83% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.