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Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$4.99 +1.01% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.99

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $527.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ASTL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ASTL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $4.99 (+1.01% 1D, market cap $527.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ASTL ranks #54 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ASTL compare to IIIN and TWI in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Steel/Iron Ore), ASTL carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, IIIN (Insteel Industries Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 13.7x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $560.6M) and TWI (Titan International Inc.) posts a E grade (19/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.3%, cap $316.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IIIN leads on earnings multiple (13.7x) while FRD leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASTL?

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For Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #54 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.99 (-0.01%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASTL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ASTL SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.3% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$4.25-2.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$4.13+17.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$4.86+2.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$4.99-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ASTL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, ASTL faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.35) or 200D SMA ($4.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.97) toward Bear Floor ($3.88).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASTL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ASTL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

64.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE67% OF RANGE

L: $3$4.99H: $6

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on ASTL

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

14.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (53)

22/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ASTL

✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASTL)

✓Walkthrough of ASTL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ASTL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.72%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $4.94H $4.99L $4.94C $4.99VOL 2.15M

RES: $5.17SUP: $3.96SMA50: $4.35SMA200: $4.44

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASTL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASTL Butterfly Map → + Track ASTL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASTL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASTL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASTL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASTL)

Materials Rank #54 of 270 ⚔️ IIIN vs ASTL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (ASTL vs. IIIN, TWI, MTUS, FRD)

Industry: Steel/Iron Ore (26 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) ranks #54 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #171 by equity capitalization ($527.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IIIN leads on earnings valuation at 13.7x trailing P/E, while FRD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.7% ROIC and — gross margin. FRD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with ASTL at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ASTL ACTIVE Algoma Steel Group Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	—	+1.01%	$527.3M	Benchmark Subject
IIIN Insteel Industries Inc.	D	50/100	13.7x	14.4%	11.4%	+2.59%	$560.6M	/iiin-vs-astl →
TWI Titan International Inc.	E	19/100	—	13.9%	5.3%	-25.83%	$316.9M	/twi-vs-astl →
MTUS Metallus Inc.	D+	53/100	—	8.2%	-0.2%	+1.18%	$887.8M	/mtus-vs-astl →
FRD Friedman Industries Inc.	C	62/100	15.9x	—	13.7%	+0.82%	$311.4M	/frd-vs-astl →

2. ASTL Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) operates in Steel/Iron Ore (Materials) with an equity capitalization of $527.3M, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. ASTL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASTL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ASTL compare to IIIN and TWI in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASTL?

Where is ASTL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASTL last traded at $4.99 (+1.01% on volume of 2,147,970 shares), positioning the stock +14.71% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.35) and +12.39% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.44). Across its 52-week range of $3.16 to $5.90, ASTL sits at the 66.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.3% ($4.43 to $5.55).

ASTL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ASTL stock right now?

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 57/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is ASTL's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ASTL's 12-month base price target is $4.97 (range $3.88 to $6.2), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: ASTL RQD Cockpit ASTL 12M Forecast ASTL Earnings & Move ASTL Dividends & DRIP ASTL Insiders & 13F ASTL Whale Options ASTL Profit Sankey ASTL News & Why