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Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$4.99 +1.01% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.99

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $527.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.99 (-0.01%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASTL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ASTL SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 67% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 59.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$4.30-6.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$4.03+17.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$4.74+5.3% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$4.99+0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ASTL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, ASTL faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.35) or 200D SMA ($4.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($5.06) toward Bear Floor ($3.95).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASTL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ASTL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ASTL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $4.99: 2004.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.95

$7,916

$-2,084 (-20.8%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $5.06

$10,140

+$140 (+1.4%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $6.20

$12,425

+$2,425 (+24.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$5	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$6	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$5	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ASTL Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ASTL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.85%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $4.94H $4.99L $4.70C $4.99VOL 1.03M

RES: $5.09SUP: $3.96SMA50: $4.35SMA200: $4.44

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASTL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASTL Butterfly Map → + Track ASTL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASTL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASTL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASTL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASTL)

Materials Rank #51 of 270 ⚔️ IIIN vs ASTL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (ASTL vs. IIIN, TWI, MTUS, FRD)

Industry: Steel/Iron Ore (26 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) ranks #51 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #171 by equity capitalization ($527.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IIIN leads on earnings valuation at 13.7x trailing P/E, while FRD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.7% ROIC and — gross margin. IIIN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with ASTL at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ASTL ACTIVE Algoma Steel Group Inc.	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+1.01%	$527.3M	Benchmark Subject
IIIN Insteel Industries Inc.	C	64/100	13.7x	14.4%	11.4%	+2.59%	$560.6M	/iiin-vs-astl →
TWI Titan International Inc.	E	22/100	—	13.9%	5.3%	-25.83%	$316.9M	/twi-vs-astl →
MTUS Metallus Inc.	D	46/100	—	8.2%	-0.2%	+1.18%	$887.8M	/mtus-vs-astl →
FRD Friedman Industries Inc.	C	62/100	15.9x	—	13.7%	+0.82%	$311.4M	/frd-vs-astl →

2. ASTL Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) operates in Steel/Iron Ore (Materials) with an equity capitalization of $527.3M, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. ASTL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASTL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $4.99 (+1.01% 1D, market cap $527.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ASTL ranks #51 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ASTL compare to IIIN and TWI in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Steel/Iron Ore), ASTL carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, IIIN (Insteel Industries Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 13.7x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $560.6M) and TWI (Titan International Inc.) posts a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.3%, cap $316.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IIIN leads on earnings multiple (13.7x) while FRD leads on capital efficiency (13.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASTL?

For Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #51 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ASTL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASTL last traded at $4.99 (+1.01% on volume of 2,147,970 shares), positioning the stock +14.71% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.35) and +12.39% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.44). Across its 52-week range of $3.16 to $5.90, ASTL sits at the 66.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.0% ($4.39 to $5.59).

ASTL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ASTL's 12-month stock price target?

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $5.06 (+1.4% from $4.99), with a bull-case target of $6.2 and a bear-case floor of $3.95.

Is ASTL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates ASTL C- (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 61/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: ASTL RQD Cockpit ASTL 12M Forecast ASTL Earnings & Move ASTL Dividends & DRIP ASTL Insiders & 13F ASTL Whale Options ASTL Profit Sankey ASTL News & Why